Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:30:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x304e…4747 sports 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$44 (+32%) realized +$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate31%22W / 49L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$35
14 days+$37
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$44
other 20% −$4
crypto 8% −$3
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +5.8% -4.3% 27% 27% +20.3%
≤30d 71 +18.6% +7.3% 31% 30% +18.3%
≤90d 71 +18.6% +7.3% 31% 30% +18.3%
all 71 +18.6% +7.3% 31% 30% +18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.3% 30% +18.3%
10% -2.9% 27% +6.9%
15% -12.3% 20% -3.4%
20% -20.9% 17% -12.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +45% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses22 / 49
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage11d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 71 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 15 $12 +$7 +59%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $29 +$53 +185%
Will Cape Verde concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou Jun 15 $1 $0 -26%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $0 $0 -52%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -37%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ assists Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Pedri: 1+ goals Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +33%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +285%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $0 $0 +0%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 -25%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$4 -42%
Spread: Ghana (-2.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 -17%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $0 $0 +15%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $0 $0 -22%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $0 $0 -3%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $0 $0 -3%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $0 $0 -3%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $0 $0 -3%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -13%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $0 $0 -3%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -27%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $0 +$1 +214%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 12 $0 $0 -40%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $0 $0 +133%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $0 +$1 +650%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $6 −$1 -11%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $0 $0 +94%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 $0 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $0 $0 +55%
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 -19%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $2 +$3 +108%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 $0 +25%
NBA Finals: Wemby to Record 20+ Rebounds in a Game? Jun 11 $1 $0 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL Yes 11¢ $6 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL Yes 14¢ $7 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL Yes 18¢ $6 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 8¢ $12 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 48¢ $48 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 48¢ $15 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 48¢ $7 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 51¢ $12 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4h
Will Cape Verde concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou SELL Yes 5¢ $0 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $28 4h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 4h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 19¢ $0 4h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 19¢ $0 4h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 19¢ $0 4h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 19¢ $1 4h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 20¢ $1 4h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 20¢ $1 4h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 11¢ $1 5h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $2 5h
Will Cape Verde concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou BUY Yes 7¢ $1 6h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 50¢ $5 6h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 6h
Ferrán Torres: 1+ assists BUY Yes 34¢ $2 6h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists BUY Yes 30¢ $2 6h
Pedri: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $1 6h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 184 history records