Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:25:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
30 0x304f…af95 sports 173 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$551 (-2%) realized −$551 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate64%110W / 63L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$196per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$426est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$626
7 days+$719
14 days−$1,167
30 days−$1,017
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$1,088
other 9% +$227
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +23.2% +11.5% 75% 70% +7.8%
≤30d 112 +5.8% -4.3% 62% 60% -13.1%
≤90d 173 +3.5% -6.4% 64% 60% -11.7%
all 173 +3.5% -6.4% 64% 60% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 60% -11.7%
10% -15.3% 58% -20.1%
15% -23.5% 51% -27.8%
20% -31.0% 38% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$195 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$551
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses110 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$426
Open positions0
Markets (closed)173 / 173
History coverage40d
Avg bet$196
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 173 Trades
no open positions (37 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $58 +$42 +73%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $127 +$76 +59%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $381 +$246 +64%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $97 +$60 +62%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $137 −$58 -43%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $200 +$136 +68%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 21 $138 −$136 -99%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $94 +$43 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $138 +$56 +40%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 20 $98 +$32 +33%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $193 +$15 +8%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $178 +$115 +64%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $397 +$278 +70%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $238 −$236 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $152 +$136 +89%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $98 +$95 +96%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $198 +$108 +55%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $246 −$243 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $303 +$240 +79%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $289 −$285 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $749 −$739 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $248 −$244 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $225 −$222 -99%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $125 +$99 +79%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $400 +$228 +57%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $242 +$159 +66%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $402 −$397 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $189 +$112 +59%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $152 +$88 +58%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $200 +$89 +45%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $198 +$54 +27%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $202 −$199 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $233 −$230 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $499 +$336 +67%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $299 +$96 +32%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $240 +$262 +109%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $409 +$127 +31%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $512 −$505 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $291 +$222 +76%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $505 −$500 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $228 −$225 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 11 $202 +$122 +60%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $149 +$77 +52%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $198 +$96 +48%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $253 +$132 +52%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $201 +$52 +26%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $254 −$251 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $484 +$368 +76%
Map Handicap: GE (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 10 $139 −$138 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner SELL KOLESIE 100¢ $100 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 57¢ $58 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $203 8h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $127 12h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $626 16h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $97 19h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $381 21h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner SELL TDK 35¢ $78 21h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 58¢ $137 22h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 - Map 2 Winner SELL K27 100¢ $337 23h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY K27 59¢ $200 23h
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY Virtus.pro 55¢ $138 25h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner SELL Infinite 100¢ $137 26h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY Infinite 68¢ $94 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 91¢ $194 37h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $138 39h
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla SELL 100 Thieves 95¢ $130 39h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 65¢ $208 39h
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY 100 Thieves 71¢ $98 41h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 59¢ $193 43h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL FURIA 100¢ $293 43h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 60¢ $178 47h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $675 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $397 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 68¢ $238 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $288 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 52¢ $152 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 64¢ $198 3d
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY 100 Thieves 50¢ $98 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $246 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 340 history records