Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:12:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3051…129f world 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate57%21W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% +$1
other 13% $0
sports 7% −$3
tech 3% +$2
crypto 2% $0
politics 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.2% -8.4% 60% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 12 +1.0% -8.6% 58% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 12 +1.0% -8.6% 58% 0% -9.3%
all 37 -1.4% -10.8% 57% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 3% -9.3%
10% -19.3% 3% -18.0%
15% -27.1% 3% -25.9%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses21 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage469d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $26 +$1 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $29 +$2 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $78 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $94 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $97 −$4 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $32 +$2 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $31 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Jun 27 $7 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 260–274 times May 30–June 6? Jun 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? May 22 $1 $0 -28%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 22 $7 $0 +4%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 9–16? May 13 $7 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? May 11 $5 +$2 +37%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $1 $0 +1%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 19 $7 +$1 +7%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Apr 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Apr 05 $12 $0 +1%
Trump meets with Carney in March? Apr 03 $12 $0 +4%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday? Mar 23 $10 $0 +2%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $1 $0 -33%
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 14-21? Mar 19 $1 $0 -28%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 17 $11 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $11 $0 +4%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 13 $1 $0 -7%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 09 $7 −$2 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $27 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $35 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 38¢ $27 30h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $24 32h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $31 43h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $29 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 38¢ $12 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 37¢ $12 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $29 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $29 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $22 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $8 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $4 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $25 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $32 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $22 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $10 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $26 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $6 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $32 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $33 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $33 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 75¢ $4 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 75¢ $28 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.25 · official $8.25 (match) · 123 history records