Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:39:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
30 0x3054…055b sports 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,432 (+34%) realized +$2,624 · open −$192
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate70%38W / 16L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day29.4pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$608now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$2,165
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +9.6% -0.8% 70% 63% +24.5%
≤30d 54 +9.6% -0.8% 70% 63% +24.5%
≤90d 54 +9.6% -0.8% 70% 63% +24.5%
all 54 +9.6% -0.8% 70% 63% +24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.8% 63% +24.5%
10% ← realistic here -10.3% 37% +12.6%
15% -19.0% 31% +1.7%
20% -26.9% 22% -8.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$44 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.33 per $1 lost it wins $4.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$608
Realized+$2,624
Unrealized−$192
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses38 / 16
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions3
Markets (closed)54 / 57
History coverage4d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day29.4
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Tauste: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Zoziya Kardava Tiphanie Lemaitre 91¢ 98¢ $400 $431 +$31 (+8%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 60¢ 53¢ $200 $177 −$23 (-12%)
ITF Tauste: Diana Marcinkevica vs Jimar Geraldine Gerald Gonzalez Jimar Geraldine Gerald Gonzalez 46¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $99 −$96 -98%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $202 +$88 +44%
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Chicago Wolves Jun 15 $209 +$447 +214%
ITF Los Angeles: Alina Shcherbinina vs Kaitlyn Carnicella Jun 14 $717 +$272 +38%
Set Handicap: Landaluce (-1.5) vs Gentzsch (+1.5) Jun 14 $401 +$43 +11%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Julia Avdeeva vs Eva Vedder Jun 14 $435 +$594 +136%
ITF Varnamo: Niels Mcdonald vs Sandro Kopp Jun 14 $203 +$251 +124%
Gimnasia vs. Quimsa Jun 14 $51 +$187 +365%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $203 +$197 +97%
Alexander Bublik vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 +$65 +129%
ITF kiseljak: Sergi Perez Contri vs Ivan Biletic Jun 13 $65 −$63 -98%
ITF Varnamo: Aristotelis Thanos vs Niels Mcdonald Jun 13 $50 +$11 +21%
ITF kiseljak: Yaroslav Demin vs Andrey Chepelev Jun 13 $36 −$35 -98%
ITF Varnamo: Henry Bernet vs Sandro Kopp Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Anastasia Tikhonova Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Alan Magadan Jun 13 $201 +$63 +32%
ITF Maanshan: Matthew Dellavedova vs Chan-Yeong Oh Jun 13 $151 +$34 +22%
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Shiraishi vs Jangjun Kim Jun 13 $202 +$134 +66%
ITF Maanshan: Pawit Sornlaksup vs Kokoro Isomura Jun 13 $201 +$47 +24%
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Sato vs Kayo Nishimura Jun 13 $201 +$34 +17%
ITF Los Angeles: Spencer Johnson vs Nathan Trouve Jun 13 $202 +$9 +4%
Set Handicap: Romano (-1.5) vs Jones (+1.5) Jun 12 $50 +$7 +14%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $102 +$119 +118%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $101 +$56 +55%
Partizan vs. BC Dubai Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Set Handicap: Added (-1.5) vs Luque (+1.5) Jun 12 $51 +$44 +86%
ITF kiseljak: Ivan Biletic vs Duje Ajdukovic Jun 12 $101 +$50 +50%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $51 +$26 +52%
ITF kiseljak: Massimo Pizzigoni vs Andrey Chepelev Jun 12 $200 +$10 +5%
ITF Nice: Tatiana Pieri vs Alina Granwehr Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Set Handicap: Salkova (-1.5) vs Kawa (+1.5) Jun 12 $50 +$23 +46%
ITF Casablanca: Luna Vujovic vs Carlota Martinez Cirez Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF kiseljak: Vladyslav Orlov vs Alen Mujakic Jun 12 $201 +$33 +16%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $40 +$18 +44%
ITF Hurghada: Viktoria Morvayova vs Martyna Kubka Jun 12 $100 +$18 +18%
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Sara Milanese Jun 12 $201 +$42 +21%
ITF Cuiaba: Maria Herazo vs Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez Jun 11 $50 +$5 +11%
ITF Wichita: Andrew Fenty vs Thanaphat Boosarawongse Jun 11 $150 +$16 +10%
ITF Wichita: Blake Ellis vs Sebastian Gorzny Jun 11 $51 +$51 +101%
ITF Wichita: Ozan Baris vs Zsombor Velcz Jun 11 $100 +$10 +10%
ITF Wichita: William Manning vs Enzo Aguiard Jun 11 $101 +$21 +21%
ITF Wichita: Pavle Marinkov vs Duncan Chan Jun 11 $101 +$22 +22%
ITF Guimaraes: Katherine Sebov vs Chelsea Fontenel Jun 11 $20 +$4 +22%
ITF Nice: Clara Burel vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 11 $41 −$40 -99%
ITF Guimaraes: Angelina Voloshchuk vs Aliona Falei Jun 11 $30 +$5 +15%
ITF Zagreb: Anna-Lena Friedsam vs Mina Hodzic Jun 11 $20 +$4 +22%
ITF Varnamo: Max Wiskandt vs Niklas Guttau Jun 11 $10 +$2 +17%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
ITF Guimaraes: Savannah Broadus vs Yeon Woo Ku Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Tauste: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Zoziya Kardava BUY Tiphanie Lemaitre 91¢ $201 1h
ITF Tauste: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Zoziya Kardava BUY Tiphanie Lemaitre 91¢ $201 1h
ITF Tauste: Diana Marcinkevica vs Jimar Geraldine Gerald Gonzalez BUY Jimar Geraldine Gerald Gonzalez 46¢ $203 1h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 60¢ $202 2h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Francesca Jones 16¢ $99 6h
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 69¢ $202 7h
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Chicago Wolves BUY Toronto Marlies 44¢ $5 23h
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Chicago Wolves BUY Toronto Marlies 31¢ $204 23h
ITF Los Angeles: Alina Shcherbinina vs Kaitlyn Carnicella BUY Alina Shcherbinina 72¢ $202 26h
ITF Los Angeles: Alina Shcherbinina vs Kaitlyn Carnicella BUY Alina Shcherbinina 72¢ $202 26h
ITF Los Angeles: Alina Shcherbinina vs Kaitlyn Carnicella BUY Alina Shcherbinina 72¢ $202 26h
ITF Los Angeles: Alina Shcherbinina vs Kaitlyn Carnicella BUY Alina Shcherbinina 71¢ $101 26h
ITF Los Angeles: Alina Shcherbinina vs Kaitlyn Carnicella BUY Alina Shcherbinina 72¢ $11 26h
Set Handicap: Landaluce (-1.5) vs Gentzsch (+1.5) BUY Landaluce 90¢ $201 30h
Set Handicap: Landaluce (-1.5) vs Gentzsch (+1.5) BUY Landaluce 90¢ $201 30h
ITF Ceska Lipa: Julia Avdeeva vs Eva Vedder SELL Julia Avdeeva 100¢ $1,029 33h
ITF Ceska Lipa: Julia Avdeeva vs Eva Vedder BUY Julia Avdeeva 40¢ $204 35h
ITF Ceska Lipa: Julia Avdeeva vs Eva Vedder BUY Julia Avdeeva 42¢ $11 35h
ITF Ceska Lipa: Julia Avdeeva vs Eva Vedder BUY Julia Avdeeva 43¢ $203 35h
ITF Ceska Lipa: Julia Avdeeva vs Eva Vedder BUY Julia Avdeeva 43¢ $17 35h
ITF Varnamo: Niels Mcdonald vs Sandro Kopp BUY Niels Mcdonald 44¢ $203 35h
Gimnasia vs. Quimsa BUY Quimsa 21¢ $51 43h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Rinky Hijikata 50¢ $51 2d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Rinky Hijikata 50¢ $51 2d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Rinky Hijikata 50¢ $51 2d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Rinky Hijikata 50¢ $51 2d
Alexander Bublik vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 43¢ $51 2d
ITF kiseljak: Sergi Perez Contri vs Ivan Biletic BUY Ivan Biletic 17¢ $13 2d
ITF kiseljak: Sergi Perez Contri vs Ivan Biletic BUY Ivan Biletic 14¢ $51 2d
ITF Varnamo: Aristotelis Thanos vs Niels Mcdonald BUY Niels Mcdonald 82¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $607.65 · official $607.65 (match) · 163 history records