Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:57:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3057…bf7b crypto 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized −$2 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate46%18W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$637now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$340
7 days−$340
14 days−$365
30 days−$365
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$329
other 39% +$4
world 2% −$5
sports 2% −$22
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-36.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -28.8% -35.6% 46% 35% -32.2%
≤30d 39 -29.3% -36.0% 46% 36% -33.3%
≤90d 39 -29.3% -36.0% 46% 36% -33.3%
all 39 -29.3% -36.0% 46% 36% -33.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.0% 36% -33.3%
10% -42.1% 26% -39.7%
15% -47.7% 10% -45.5%
20% -52.9% 8% -50.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$23 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$637
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses18 / 21
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)39 / 51
History coverage14d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $183 $182 −$1 (-1%)
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? No 90¢ 98¢ $147 $159 +$13 (+9%)
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested before 2027? No 81¢ 82¢ $150 $153 +$2 (+2%)
Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal? No 49¢ 48¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal? No 27¢ 25¢ $28 $26 −$2 (-7%)
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? No 75¢ 92¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+22%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 78¢ 83¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+7%)
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison? No 93¢ 92¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal? No 47¢ 46¢ $13 $13 −$1 (-4%)
Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027? No 78¢ 46¢ $13 $8 −$6 (-42%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 23¢ 26¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+11%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$8 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 19 $133 −$122 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 19 $102 +$24 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$7 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $106 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $101 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $61 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $106 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$5 -47%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $18 −$9 -51%
Will James Clapper be arrested before 2027? Jun 16 $6 $0 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -83%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $26 −$3 -10%
Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30? Jun 15 $73 $0 +0%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $18 +$4 +24%
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? Jun 08 $27 −$26 -95%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $5 +$1 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $9 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $17 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $125 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $111 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $637.05 · official $637.05 (match) · 132 history records