Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:04:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
30 0x305b…dac0 sports 1329 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$816 (+2%) realized +$854 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate99%1301W / 10L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day25.5pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$816now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53
7 days+$79
14 days+$368
30 days+$705
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$851
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 401 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 1014 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 2% -7.9%
≤90d 1311 +2.7% -7.1% 99% 2% -7.9%
all 1311 +2.7% -7.1% 99% 2% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.1% 2% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.0% 1% -16.7%
15% -24.1% 1% -24.8%
20% -31.5% 0% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$18 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×6.06 per $1 lost it wins $6.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$816
Realized+$854
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1301 / 10
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions18
Markets (closed)1311 / 1329
History coverage66d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day25.5
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 1311 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke Christopher OConnell 99¢ 100¢ $199 $201 +$2 (+1%)
ITF Klosters: Kailey Evans vs Laura Mair Laura Mair 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 +$0 (+0%)
ITF Klosters: Dune Vaissaud vs Josephine Kunz Dune Vaissaud 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 +$0 (+0%)
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Carlos Sanchez Jover 96¢ 100¢ $94 $98 +$4 (+4%)
ITF Blois: Lola Radivojevic vs Francesca Curmi Francesca Curmi 99¢ 100¢ $80 $81 +$0 (+1%)
Karol/Serdarusic vs. Sobhy/Zakaria: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Over 99¢ 50¢ $84 $43 −$41 (-49%)
Gombos vs. Svrcina: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Over 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Rothensteiner vs. Douyeb: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Over 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Schell vs. Plunger: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Over 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Biletic vs. Galus: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Over 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Lopez vs. Schuman: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Over 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Cacao vs. Domingues: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Over 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
ITF Kayseri: Matas Vasiliauskas vs Haydar Cem Gokpinar Matas Vasiliauskas 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Sutjiadi/Tjen vs Li/Valentova Sutjiadi/Tjen 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
ITF Ystad: Matylda Burylo vs Emina Honic Matylda Burylo 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
ITF Monastir: Anas Bennour Dit Sahli vs Ergi Kirkin Ergi Kirkin 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Fick/McGiffin vs. Daniel/Thombare: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Over 99¢ 50¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-49%)
Set 1 Winner: Fick/McGiffin vs Daniel/Thombare Fick/McGiffin 99¢ 50¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bondaz vs. Fumagalli: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Krumich vs. Silva: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Krumich vs. Silva: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Sutjiadi/Tjen vs. Li/Valentova: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Isaro/Poonacha vs. Goldhoff/Harper: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Isaro/Poonacha vs. Goldhoff/Harper: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Isaro/Poonacha vs. Goldhoff/Harper: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Gonzalez/McDonald vs. Faria/Rocha: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Set 1 Winner: Horvit vs Ilic Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan Jun 17 $199 +$2 +1%
Vogt vs. Coppez: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Ifi vs. Efstathiou: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Kumstat vs. Denolly: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Tiafoe vs. Shimabukuro: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Tiafoe vs. Shimabukuro: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Schlageter vs. Zahraj: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Set 1 Winner: Jung/Uesugi vs Jecan/Pavel Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
ITF Dinard: Julie Myatovic vs Margaux Maquet Jun 17 $98 +$2 +2%
Olivieri vs. Ribecai: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Puttergill/Smith vs. Jans/Visker: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Harrison/Osborne vs. Basiletti/Meliss: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Paul vs. Seibold: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Royan (Doubles): Sueoka/Tajima vs Agostini/Johansson Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
ITF Haskovo: Valeriya Strakhova vs Elena Korokozidi Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Jung/Uesugi vs. Jecan/Pavel: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $54 +$1 +1%
Jung/Uesugi vs. Jecan/Pavel: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Dublin (Doubles): Added/Hands vs Buldorini/Elamin Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Krawietz/Puetz vs. Galloway/Peers: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
ITF Haskovo: Bianca Barbulescu vs Denislava Glushkova Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
Krawietz/Puetz vs. Galloway/Peers: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Krawietz/Puetz vs. Galloway/Peers: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
ITF Haskovo: Anja Stankovic vs Rositsa Dencheva Jun 17 $163 +$2 +1%
Sueoka/Tajima vs. Agostini/Johansson: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Steiner vs. Bennemann: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Dell'elba vs. Coman: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Moratelli/Pace vs. Jakupovic/Radisic: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Guna vs. Cazacu: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
ITF Kayseri: Alana Subasic vs Maria Pares Bergnes De Las Casas Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Duran vs. Phillips: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Khomutsianskaya vs. Han: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
ITF Zhengzhou: Ran Yang vs Ekaterina Yashina Jun 17 $65 +$1 +1%
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Yuyao Li Jun 17 $27 $0 +1%
ITF Maanshan: Ye Chen vs Chan-Yeong Oh Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
ITF Taipei: Eri Shimizu vs Nagi Hanatani Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
ITF Maanshan: Dong Ju Kim vs Moerani Bouzige Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Set 1 Winner: Sato vs Hu Jun 17 $199 +$2 +1%
Set 1 Winner: Wang vs Matsuda Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Nugroho vs. Ren: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
ITF Taipei: Anchisa Chanta vs Vivian Yang Jun 17 $23 $0 +1%
Visaya vs. Honda: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Ystad: Matylda Burylo vs Emina Honic BUY Matylda Burylo 99¢ $10 12m
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Carlos Sanchez Jover 96¢ $94 13m
ITF Blois: Lola Radivojevic vs Francesca Curmi BUY Francesca Curmi 99¢ $60 15m
ITF Blois: Lola Radivojevic vs Francesca Curmi BUY Francesca Curmi 99¢ $20 16m
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Sutjiadi/Tjen vs Li/Valentova BUY Sutjiadi/Tjen 99¢ $10 16m
Lopez vs. Schuman: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 99¢ $20 18m
Gombos vs. Svrcina: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 99¢ $30 22m
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Christopher OConnell 99¢ $100 23m
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Christopher OConnell 99¢ $99 23m
Cacao vs. Domingues: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 99¢ $20 31m
Sutjiadi/Tjen vs. Li/Valentova: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 99¢ $20 54m
Sutjiadi/Tjen vs. Li/Valentova: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 99¢ $30 54m
Biletic vs. Galus: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 99¢ $20 56m
Krumich vs. Silva: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 99¢ $20 1h
ITF Kayseri: Matas Vasiliauskas vs Haydar Cem Gokpinar BUY Matas Vasiliauskas 99¢ $10 1h
Krumich vs. Silva: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 99¢ $20 1h
Bondaz vs. Fumagalli: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 99¢ $20 1h
Set 1 Winner: Horvit vs Ilic BUY Horvit 99¢ $100 1h
Gonzalez/McDonald vs. Faria/Rocha: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 99¢ $30 1h
Gonzalez/McDonald vs. Faria/Rocha: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 99¢ $20 1h
Isaro/Poonacha vs. Goldhoff/Harper: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 99¢ $30 1h
Isaro/Poonacha vs. Goldhoff/Harper: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 99¢ $20 1h
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan BUY Aoyama/Chan 99¢ $100 1h
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan BUY Aoyama/Chan 99¢ $15 1h
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan BUY Aoyama/Chan 99¢ $84 1h
Isaro/Poonacha vs. Goldhoff/Harper: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 99¢ $30 1h
Isaro/Poonacha vs. Goldhoff/Harper: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 99¢ $20 1h
Kumstat vs. Denolly: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 99¢ $30 1h
Isaro/Poonacha vs. Goldhoff/Harper: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 99¢ $30 1h
Isaro/Poonacha vs. Goldhoff/Harper: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 99¢ $20 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $815.68 · official $815.68 (match) · 3009 history records