Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:43:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
30 0x305b…cd21 sports 1226 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$41 (+0%) realized +$37 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%648W / 557L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$280est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$425now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$31
14 days+$38
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$306
other 2% +$14
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -12.2% -20.5% 47% 47% -5.2%
≤30d 186 -7.3% -16.1% 51% 50% -10.4%
≤90d 1169 -4.1% -13.3% 53% 53% -10.5%
all 1205 -4.2% -13.3% 54% 53% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 53% -10.7%
10% -21.6% 52% -19.3%
15% -29.2% 48% -27.1%
20% -36.1% 35% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$16 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$425
Realized+$37
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses648 / 557
Est. fees paid−$280
Open positions19
Markets (closed)1205 / 1226
History coverage97d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 1205 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $250 $253 +$3 (+1%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 50¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Wimbledon WTA: Magdalena Frech vs Anna Kalinskaya Anna Kalinskaya 69¢ 100¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+45%)
Wimbledon WTA: Solana Sierra vs Anna Bondar Solana Sierra 64¢ 76¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Wimbledon ATP: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alejandro Tabilo Kamil Majchrzak 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon WTA: Jasmine Paolini vs Robin Montgomery Robin Montgomery 59¢ 58¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Sho Shimabukuro vs Jaime Faria Sho Shimabukuro 53¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Lorenzo Sonego vs Tomas Etcheverry Lorenzo Sonego 52¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Liudmila Samsonova Liudmila Samsonova 66¢ 66¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon WTA: Emma Navarro vs Paula Badosa Emma Navarro 59¢ 58¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon WTA: Petra Marcinko vs Sofia Kenin Petra Marcinko 57¢ 56¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Corentin Moutet vs Marcos Giron Marcos Giron 53¢ 52¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier Alex Molcan 49¢ 48¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Yannick Hanfmann 43¢ 42¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Donna Vekic Ashlyn Krueger 42¢ 42¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon WTA: Anhelina Kalinina vs Kamilla Rakhimova Kamilla Rakhimova 41¢ 40¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Clara Tauson Maria Sakkari 37¢ 36¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon WTA: Gabriela Ruse vs Caty McNally Caty McNally 46¢ 46¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Nicolas Mejia Adolfo Vallejo 59¢ 28¢ $12 $6 −$6 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 29 $10 +$7 +70%
Wimbledon WTA: Leylah Fernandez vs Janice Tjen Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie Jun 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Wimbledon ATP: Ethan Quinn vs Luciano Darderi Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Wimbledon ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Jun 29 $10 +$5 +46%
Wimbledon WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Shuai Zhang Jun 29 $10 +$15 +145%
Wimbledon WTA: Xinyu Wang vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Wimbledon WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Tatjana Maria Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Wimbledon ATP: Aleksandar Vukic vs Jenson Brooksby Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 29 $12 −$2 -19%
Wimbledon WTA: Peyton Stearns vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Wimbledon ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Fabian Marozsan Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $51 +$60 +119%
Ethan Quinn vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$14 +67%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $10 +$7 +70%
Mallorca Championships: Grigor Dimitrov vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 25 $10 +$6 +57%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $10 +$8 +79%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 24 $10 +$7 +67%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tereza Valentova vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Set Handicap: Maria (-1.5) vs Zakharova (+1.5) Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Anna Kalinskaya vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Anhelina Kalinina Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Set Handicap: Bergs (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) Jun 24 $10 −$2 -23%
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 24 $10 +$4 +44%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Jenson Brooksby Jun 24 $10 +$5 +52%
Set Handicap: Buse (-1.5) vs Kopriva (+1.5) Jun 24 $10 +$5 +50%
Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Alexandrova (+1.5) Jun 24 $10 +$8 +83%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ella McDonald vs Elvina Kalieva Jun 23 $6 +$4 +67%
Set Handicap: Humbert (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) Jun 23 $8 +$5 +62%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Kimberly Birrell vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Samsonova (+1.5) Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Jeline Vandromme vs Yue Yuan Jun 23 $5 +$6 +124%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 +$16 +79%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina Jun 23 $20 +$8 +42%
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse Jun 23 $10 +$13 +129%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Jun 23 $10 +$9 +86%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Panna Udvardy vs Anna Bondar Jun 23 $7 +$10 +134%
Mallorca Championships: Lorenzo Sonego vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally Jun 23 $8 +$4 +50%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Anastasia Zakharova Jun 23 $10 +$15 +146%
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 23 $9 +$6 +70%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Aleksandar Vukic Jun 23 $7 +$4 +62%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Jaume Munar Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 37¢ $255 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Gabriela Ruse vs Caty McNally BUY Caty McNally 46¢ $7 3h
Wimbledon WTA: Petra Marcinko vs Sofia Kenin BUY Petra Marcinko 57¢ $8 3h
Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard BUY Yannick Hanfmann 43¢ $8 3h
Wimbledon WTA: Anhelina Kalinina vs Kamilla Rakhimova BUY Kamilla Rakhimova 41¢ $8 3h
Wimbledon WTA: Emma Navarro vs Paula Badosa BUY Emma Navarro 59¢ $8 3h
Wimbledon ATP: Corentin Moutet vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 53¢ $8 3h
Wimbledon ATP: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Alex Molcan 49¢ $8 3h
Wimbledon WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Clara Tauson BUY Maria Sakkari 37¢ $8 3h
Wimbledon WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Liudmila Samsonova BUY Liudmila Samsonova 66¢ $8 3h
Wimbledon WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Donna Vekic BUY Ashlyn Krueger 42¢ $8 3h
Wimbledon ATP: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Kamil Majchrzak 67¢ $10 3h
Wimbledon WTA: Jasmine Paolini vs Robin Montgomery BUY Robin Montgomery 59¢ $10 3h
Wimbledon ATP: Sho Shimabukuro vs Jaime Faria BUY Sho Shimabukuro 53¢ $10 3h
Wimbledon ATP: Lorenzo Sonego vs Tomas Etcheverry BUY Lorenzo Sonego 52¢ $10 3h
Wimbledon WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Shuai Zhang SELL Shuai Zhang 100¢ $25 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $20 8h
Wimbledon WTA: Magdalena Frech vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Anna Kalinskaya 69¢ $10 27h
Wimbledon WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Tatjana Maria BUY Yulia Putintseva 35¢ $10 27h
Wimbledon WTA: Peyton Stearns vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Peyton Stearns 32¢ $10 27h
Wimbledon WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Shuai Zhang BUY Shuai Zhang 40¢ $10 27h
Wimbledon WTA: Solana Sierra vs Anna Bondar BUY Solana Sierra 64¢ $10 27h
Wimbledon WTA: Leylah Fernandez vs Janice Tjen BUY Leylah Fernandez 70¢ $10 27h
Wimbledon WTA: Xinyu Wang vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto BUY Elisabetta Cocciaretto 43¢ $10 27h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 61¢ $12 27h
Wimbledon ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Stefanos Tsitsipas BUY Stefanos Tsitsipas 68¢ $10 28h
Wimbledon ATP: Aleksandar Vukic vs Jenson Brooksby BUY Aleksandar Vukic 35¢ $10 28h
Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Oliver Tarvet BUY Arthur Rinderknech 58¢ $10 28h
Wimbledon ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Fabian Marozsan BUY Thiago Agustin Tirante 33¢ $10 28h
Wimbledon ATP: Ethan Quinn vs Luciano Darderi BUY Luciano Darderi 42¢ $10 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $424.60 · official $424.88 (match) · 2529 history records