Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:51:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x305e…b28b sports 203 markets active 0h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$100 (+1%) realized +$294 · open −$194
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate30%59W / 137L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$91est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$258now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$89
7 days−$711
14 days−$721
30 days−$509
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$243
other 40% −$42
crypto 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 119 -8.4% -17.1% 22% 22% -25.9%
≤30d 144 -4.1% -13.2% 25% 25% -19.2%
≤90d 196 +3.6% -6.3% 30% 28% -10.9%
all 196 +3.6% -6.3% 30% 28% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 28% -10.9%
10% -15.3% 27% -19.4%
15% -23.4% 26% -27.2%
20% -30.9% 25% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$22 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$258
Realized+$294
Unrealized−$194
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses59 / 137
Est. fees paid−$91
Open positions7
Markets (closed)196 / 203
History coverage71d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 196 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $119 $118 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Uzbekistan 55¢ 55¢ $118 $117 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $22 $24 +$1 (+6%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Under 22¢ $78 $0 −$78 (-100%)
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Under 59¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Under 19¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Under $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $218 −$59 -27%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $17 −$1 -5%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $31 −$24 -79%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $97 +$32 +33%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$50 +982%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 +$64 +414%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$13 -64%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Marko Arnautovic: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$17 +16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$46 +46%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $133 +$47 +35%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 16 $41 −$3 -7%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 16 $12 −$9 -70%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $25 −$13 -50%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $41 −$40 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 +$29 +188%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $50 −$50 -99%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $27 +$22 +83%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $15 +$8 +51%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $15 −$2 -11%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $28 +$80 +291%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $32 −$31 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $71 +$56 +79%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $36 −$4 -10%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $92 +$11 +12%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 +$37 +361%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $22 −$22 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $102 +$96 +95%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -91%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $56 −$45 -80%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $66 +$165 +249%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $41 −$25 -62%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $46 −$35 -76%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $18 −$18 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $77 −$11 -14%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $3 −$2 -57%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $19 −$6 -29%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $41 −$33 -80%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $26 −$24 -94%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $66 −$52 -78%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $81 +$76 +93%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $89 +$63 +70%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $6 +$114 +1843%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 55¢ $120 3m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $121 5m
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? SELL Yes 12¢ $17 15m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 49¢ $125 47m
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $41 47m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 22¢ $80 49m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 52¢ $137 59m
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 59¢ $81 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 19¢ $26 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $16 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 21¢ $34 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 48¢ $81 1h
Spread: England (-2.5) SELL England $7 1h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 24¢ $31 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $3 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $7 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $10 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Under 19¢ $15 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 30¢ $26 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 31¢ $45 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No $7 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $5 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $10 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $20 6h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 47¢ $71 6h
Marko Arnautovic: 1+ goals BUY No 78¢ $20 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 13¢ $16 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $258.43 · official $261.82 · 446 history records