Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:46:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x305f…86c0 crypto 299 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$781 (-8%) realized −$781 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%145W / 154L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day30.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$554
7 days−$696
14 days−$696
30 days−$897
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$897
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 247 -0.9% -10.3% 49% 49% -16.3%
≤30d 299 -2.6% -11.8% 48% 48% -17.6%
≤90d 299 -2.6% -11.8% 48% 48% -17.6%
all 299 -2.6% -11.8% 48% 48% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 48% -17.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 48% -25.5%
15% -28.0% 48% -32.7%
20% -35.0% 46% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$34 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$781
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses145 / 154
Open positions0
Markets (closed)299 / 299
History coverage28d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day30.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 299 Trades
no open positions (154 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$5 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$8 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$7 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$7 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$6 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$11 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$9 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$13 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$32 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $33 −$32 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $33 +$26 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$63 +256%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$19 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $11 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $9 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $9 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $9 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $10 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $7 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $9 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $9 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $9 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $8 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $11 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 986 history records