Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:47:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3061…6910 crypto 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate44%48W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day47.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$159
7 days−$261
14 days−$272
30 days−$272
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$272
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -11.4% -19.9% 41% 31% -23.4%
≤30d 108 -9.2% -17.9% 44% 34% -17.0%
≤90d 108 -9.2% -17.9% 44% 34% -17.0%
all 108 -9.2% -17.9% 44% 34% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.9% 34% -17.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.7% 29% -25.0%
15% -32.9% 24% -32.2%
20% -39.5% 14% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$14 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses48 / 60
Open positions0
Markets (closed)108 / 108
History coverage8d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day47.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 108 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 23 $37 −$34 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 23 $132 −$34 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 23 $27 +$11 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 23 $36 +$8 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 23 $18 −$12 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $18 +$15 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $32 −$20 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 23 $32 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 23 $11 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $42 +$16 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 23 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $31 −$12 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 23 $31 −$4 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$16 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 23 $11 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 23 $32 −$18 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $8 −$3 -31%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$17 -80%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$2 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 23 $1 +$2 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 22 $19 −$18 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $23 +$8 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 22 $44 −$40 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 22 $29 −$13 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $8 +$6 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 22 $13 −$5 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $9 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 22 $47 −$29 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 22 $32 −$11 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $32 −$13 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $27 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $28 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$7 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $38 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $42 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $11 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 384 history records