Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:32:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3066…693a sports 525 markets active 2h ago coverage 213d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$914 (-5%) realized −$911 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%227W / 277L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$234est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$297now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$898
7 days−$4,109
14 days−$3,734
30 days−$1,244
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$14
other 9% +$61
world 1% −$76
politics 0% −$69
economics 0% −$60
culture 0% −$16
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 162 -56.2% -60.3% 17% 17% -55.7%
≤30d 223 -17.3% -25.2% 39% 39% -19.5%
≤90d 461 +0.8% -8.8% 45% 45% -8.0%
all 504 -0.1% -9.6% 45% 45% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 45% -10.4%
10% -18.2% 44% -18.9%
15% -26.1% 44% -26.8%
20% -33.4% 43% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$35 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

213d coverage
Net worth$297
Realized−$911
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses227 / 277
Est. fees paid−$234
Open positions4
Markets (closed)504 / 525
History coverage213d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 504 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Ecuador 44¢ 44¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 42¢ 40¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 45¢ 44¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $152 +$148 +97%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $70 −$70 -100%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $70 +$67 +96%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $20 +$19 +96%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $70 +$67 +96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 19 $102 −$20 -20%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $70 +$67 +96%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $70 +$67 +96%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $20 +$19 +96%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $70 −$70 -100%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $70 +$67 +96%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $70 −$70 -100%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $20 +$19 +96%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $70 −$70 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Will Canada win Jun 19 $51 +$484 +942%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$259 +506%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$100 +196%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $70 −$70 -100%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $70 −$70 -100%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $70 −$70 -100%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $70 +$67 +96%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $70 +$67 +96%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $20 +$19 +96%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $153 +$447 +291%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $70 +$67 +96%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $70 +$67 +96%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $20 +$19 +96%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $70 −$70 -100%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $70 +$67 +96%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $70 −$70 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $20 +$19 +96%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $70 −$70 -100%
Dota 2: enjoy boys vs Two Move - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: D family vs Execration - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $102 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Eg BUY 5¢ $51 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 44¢ $102 2h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ja BUY 17¢ $51 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 50¢ $152 2h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos - Game 2 Winner BUY Yangon Galacticos 51¢ $24 4h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos - Game 2 Winner BUY Yangon Galacticos 51¢ $11 4h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos - Game 2 Winner BUY Yangon Galacticos 51¢ $3 4h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos - Game 2 Winner BUY Yangon Galacticos 51¢ $4 4h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos - Game 2 Winner BUY Yangon Galacticos 51¢ $3 4h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos - Game 2 Winner BUY Yangon Galacticos 51¢ $1 4h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos - Game 2 Winner BUY Yangon Galacticos 51¢ $25 4h
Dota 2: summer bear vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 51¢ $14 12h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 51¢ $20 12h
Dota 2: summer bear vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 51¢ $56 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 27¢ $102 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- SELL 24¢ $82 12h
Dota 2: summer bear vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 51¢ $20 12h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 51¢ $70 14h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 51¢ $70 17h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner BUY Spirit Academy 51¢ $70 20h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 51¢ $6 21h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 51¢ $10 21h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 51¢ $6 21h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 51¢ $15 21h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 51¢ $20 21h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 51¢ $3 21h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 51¢ $1 21h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 51¢ $10 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $296.54 · official $396.54 · 1464 history records