Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:03:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3066…37d6 world 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 326d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%5W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$2
other 21% −$1
economics 19% $0
politics 11% $0
crypto 8% $0
weather 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 13 -0.6% -10.0% 15% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 13 -0.6% -10.0% 15% 0% -10.0%
all 37 -0.9% -10.3% 14% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

326d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses5 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage326d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $71 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $29 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $36 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $28 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 01 $35 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $35 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $36 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $39 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $36 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $38 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 74-75°F on July 29? Aug 10 $7 $0 +1%
Will Cole Palmer win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 31 $58 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 31 $10 $0 +0%
Trump x Epstein files made public by July 31? Jul 30 $10 $0 +1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jul 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 30 $5 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 29 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during July Press Conference? Jul 29 $62 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Jul 29 $5 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 25–August 1? Jul 29 $2 −$1 -24%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 29 $69 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 29 $69 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 28 $68 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 28 $76 $0 +0%
Israel military action against Iran in July? Jul 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 28 $5 $0 -2%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 28 $69 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $40 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $40 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 67¢ $36 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 67¢ $36 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $4 16h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $11 16h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $14 16h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $29 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $7 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $29 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $1 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $35 27h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 39h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $6 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $1 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $1 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $18 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 17d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 82¢ $6 17d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 82¢ $30 17d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $35 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $25 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 113 history records