Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:51:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

30
0x3066…6895
crypto · 2042 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$227 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$223 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$145
Realized+$223
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses1184 / 451
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions53
Markets (closed)1635 / 2042
History coverage18d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day127.9
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 53 History 1635 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$709
7 days−$611
14 days−$41
30 days+$223
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Yes 17¢ 100¢ $2 $12 +$10 (+488%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 47¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? Yes 12¢ 28¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+127%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? Yes 27¢ 20¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-27%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 13? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on February 2? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Procter & Gamble (PG) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 94% +$925
other 3% +$5
weather 2% +$21
sports 1% +$8
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +72%
net ROI/market (all)+4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 486 -42.8% -48.2% 38% 36% -59.0%
≤30d 1635 +15.3% +4.3% 72% 72% -3.8%
≤90d 1635 +15.3% +4.3% 72% 72% -3.8%
all 1635 +15.3% +4.3% 72% 72% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover127.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.3% 72% -3.8%
10% ← realistic here -5.6% 66% -13.0%
15% -14.8% 48% -21.4%
20% -23.1% 28% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.02 · official $145.03 (match) · 3500 history records