Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:23:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
30 0x3068…083d politics 674 markets active 0h ago coverage 924d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,117 (+5%) realized +$4,794 · open +$323
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate76%504W / 157L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$4,397now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$446
7 days+$782
14 days+$604
30 days+$1,251
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% +$6,161
world 24% −$111
other 9% −$70
crypto 7% −$1,060
finance 6% −$16
tech 3% +$221
sports 2% −$543
economics 1% +$514
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +22.1% +10.5% 95% 55% +0.3%
≤30d 65 +2.7% -7.1% 83% 31% -2.9%
≤90d 253 -7.5% -16.4% 62% 48% -8.3%
all 661 +4.2% -5.7% 76% 39% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 39% -5.1%
10% -14.8% 28% -14.1%
15% -23.0% 19% -22.4%
20% -30.5% 11% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$72 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

924d coverage
Net worth$4,397
Realized+$4,794
Unrealized+$323
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses504 / 157
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions13
Markets (closed)661 / 674
History coverage924d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 661 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 58¢ 73¢ $780 $988 +$207 (+27%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $886 $904 +$18 (+2%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? No 81¢ 92¢ $522 $587 +$66 (+13%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 72¢ 87¢ $451 $547 +$96 (+21%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? No 77¢ 76¢ $400 $397 −$3 (-1%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 32¢ 38¢ $315 $384 +$69 (+22%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 81¢ 86¢ $359 $381 +$23 (+6%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $180 $71 −$109 (-61%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $63 $54 −$9 (-14%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 29, 2026? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 30, 2026? Yes 90¢ 94¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+4%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 27, 2026? Yes 90¢ 91¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 37¢ 4¢ $40 $4 −$36 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $619 +$168 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $400 +$20 +5%
Will Trump say "UFC" this week? Jun 17 $22 +$78 +353%
Will Trump say "Maduro" this week? Jun 17 $304 +$45 +15%
Will Trump say "Peanut" this week? Jun 17 $107 +$14 +13%
Will Trump say "Traitor" this week? Jun 17 $445 +$39 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 16 $500 +$53 +11%
Will Trump say "NATO" this week? Jun 16 $17 +$2 +11%
Will Trump say "No No No" this week? Jun 16 $17 +$2 +11%
Will Trump say "Sacrifice" this week? Jun 16 $15 +$2 +11%
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? Jun 16 $204 +$21 +10%
Will Trump say "Table" this week? Jun 15 $60 +$3 +5%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $94 +$7 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $116 +$41 +35%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $701 +$16 +2%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $1,696 +$279 +16%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 14 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? Jun 14 $93 +$7 +8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $469 −$50 -11%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $56 +$14 +25%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 11 $393 +$7 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $1,200 +$6 +0%
Will Ferdinando Federico win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral election? Jun 08 $200 +$7 +3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $401 −$142 -35%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $447 −$79 -18%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $192 +$16 +8%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $450 +$16 +4%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 04 $153 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Megyn Kelly by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $88 +$4 +4%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kaitlan Collins by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $14 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $60 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? Jun 02 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Trump say "Traitor" this week? Jun 02 $45 +$10 +21%
Will Trump say "CIA" this week? Jun 02 $28 +$23 +82%
Will Trump say "Uber" this week? Jun 01 $3 $0 +10%
Critical Discord Incident by May 31? Jun 01 $27 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $53 +$2 +3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $200 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Alex Jones by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $51 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Zohran Mamdani by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $106 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $698 +$67 +10%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Mohammed bin Salman by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $15 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $200 +$6 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $400 +$6 +2%
US x China tariff agreement by May 31? Jun 01 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? May 30 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 30, 2026? May 30 $267 +$21 +8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 30 $550 +$16 +3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 29, 2026? May 29 $100 +$7 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 34¢ $70 11m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 31¢ $145 16m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 31¢ $100 19m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 69¢ $253 22m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 69¢ $253 22m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 78¢ $100 54m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 76¢ $152 55m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $394 55m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 79¢ $3 56m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 80¢ $72 56m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 79¢ $100 57m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 71¢ $100 57m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $275 57m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 59¢ $26 58m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 86¢ $100 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 86¢ $200 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 75¢ $8 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 75¢ $14 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 76¢ $100 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 76¢ $100 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 87¢ $101 1h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $405 1h
Will Trump say "UFC" this week? SELL No 100¢ $100 6h
Will Trump say "Maduro" this week? SELL No 100¢ $349 9h
Will Trump say "Traitor" this week? SELL No 100¢ $484 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $393 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $392 21h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $493 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $459 21h
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $140 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,396.88 · official $4,401.76 (match) · 3158 history records