Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:19:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3068…5fa6 weather 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-1%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$7
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +20.4% +8.9% 50% 38% +0.4%
≤30d 12 +1.9% -7.8% 33% 25% -15.0%
≤90d 12 +1.9% -7.8% 33% 25% -15.0%
all 12 +1.9% -7.8% 33% 25% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 25% -15.0%
10% -16.6% 25% -23.2%
15% -24.7% 25% -30.6%
20% -32.1% 25% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage9d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$6 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$6 +120%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 −$2 -22%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $13 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 +$5 +58%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$3 -51%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 −$3 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $12 −$7 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 −$1 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? SELL Yes 81¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 97¢ $11 23h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 36h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 41¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 50¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 37¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 36¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? SELL Yes 35¢ $7 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 37¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? SELL Yes 93¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? SELL Yes 47¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 61¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? SELL Yes 42¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 44¢ $9 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? SELL Yes 66¢ $13 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 7d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? SELL Yes 34¢ $4 7d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? SELL Yes 33¢ $4 7d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? BUY Yes 46¢ $4 7d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? BUY Yes 40¢ $7 7d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 10? SELL Yes 23¢ $6 8d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 10? BUY Yes 48¢ $12 8d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 9? SELL Yes 37¢ $9 9d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 9? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records