Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:55:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3069…7b8a other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$1 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate70%14W / 6L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$232per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$2
politics 16% −$1
weather 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 5 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 20 -1.3% -10.7% 70% 10% -9.6%
all 20 -1.3% -10.7% 70% 10% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 10% -9.6%
10% -19.3% 5% -18.2%
15% -27.1% 5% -26.1%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$987) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses14 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)20 / 26
History coverage81d
Avg bet$232
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on May 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 on April 22? May 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C or higher on April 2 Apr 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 58-59°F on April 21? Apr 22 $2 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on April 21? Apr 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) close above $570 on March 26? Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $240 on March 26? Mar 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $380 on March 26? Mar 27 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11PM ET Mar 26 $1 $0 +43%
Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 26 $2,001 $0 -0%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 26 $1,012 $0 +0%
Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? Mar 26 $999 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 26 $988 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Mar 26 $2 $0 +6%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $987 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Mar 26 $1 $0 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.50 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Apple (AAPL) close at $315-$320 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at >$420 on the final day of trading of the we BUY No 95¢ $1 1h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at <$180 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 30d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 30d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 30d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 30d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 30d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $2 53d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $2 54d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 58-59°F on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $2 54d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C or higher on April 2 BUY No 100¢ $2 54d
Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL No 98¢ $981 80d
Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 98¢ $869 80d
Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 98¢ $112 80d
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 99¢ $439 80d
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 99¢ $573 80d
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 99¢ $667 80d
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 99¢ $345 80d
Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $998 80d
Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $999 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 81d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $987 81d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $988 81d
Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL No 98¢ $32 81d
Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL No 98¢ $33 81d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.63 · official $9.63 (match) · 56 history records