Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:43:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3069…0cf2 weather 860 markets active 2h ago coverage 219d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized +$4 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate85%725W / 127L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$53
14 days−$191
30 days−$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$146
crypto 1% −$55
other 0% +$33
world 0% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -0.8% -10.3% 95% 3% -11.9%
≤30d 255 -2.7% -11.9% 69% 36% -11.0%
≤90d 851 -1.0% -10.5% 85% 12% -9.7%
all 852 -1.0% -10.5% 85% 12% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 12% -9.7%
10% -19.0% 9% -18.4%
15% -26.9% 5% -26.3%
20% -34.0% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$22 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

219d coverage
Net worth$210
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses725 / 127
Open positions8
Markets (closed)852 / 860
History coverage219d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 852 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 13°C on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C on June 24? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 24? No 100¢ 2¢ $30 $1 −$29 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 24? Jun 24 $28 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C or below on June 24? Jun 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 24? Jun 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 24? Jun 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 24? Jun 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 24? Jun 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 24? Jun 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $28 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 24? Jun 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 24? Jun 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 24? Jun 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 24? Jun 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 24? Jun 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju Jun 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 23? Jun 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 23? Jun 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 23? Jun 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 23? Jun 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 23? Jun 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 23? Jun 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 23? Jun 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 23? Jun 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 23? Jun 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 23? Jun 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 23? Jun 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C or below on June 23? Jun 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 23? Jun 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 23? Jun 23 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 23? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 23? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 23? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 23? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 23? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 23? Jun 23 $29 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 23? Jun 23 $28 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 23? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 23? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 23? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 23? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 23? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 23? Jun 23 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 23? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 22? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 61°F or below on June Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 22? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 22? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $30 3h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $30 4h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $30 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 24? BUY Yes 94¢ $28 9h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 24? BUY Yes 92¢ $28 9h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $30 10h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $30 10h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $30 11h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $30 11h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $30 11h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $30 11h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $30 12h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C or below on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $30 12h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $30 12h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $30 12h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $30 13h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $30 16h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $30 20h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 13°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $30 20h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $30 22h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $30 25h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $30 27h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $16 27h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $14 27h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $28 27h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $2 27h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $30 28h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $30 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $210.46 · official $210.47 (match) · 3030 history records