Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:21:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x306b…f56a world 86 markets active 0h ago coverage 528d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate40%34W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$5
other 21% +$5
politics 15% +$2
sports 10% −$21
economics 6% +$1
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% $0
weather 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)+8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 18 +111.6% +91.5% 56% 11% -9.4%
≤90d 68 +26.8% +14.7% 35% 6% -9.5%
all 85 +20.0% +8.6% 40% 12% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.6% 12% -9.8%
10% -1.8% 7% -18.4%
15% -11.3% 4% -26.3%
20% -20.0% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses34 / 51
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)85 / 86
History coverage528d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $39 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $35 +$1 +3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $124 −$1 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $39 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $17 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $45 −$1 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $65 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $32 +$4 +13%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $32 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $8 $0 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $30 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $63 −$3 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $55 −$2 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $87 +$4 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $16 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 24 $37 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $37 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $33 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $33 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 19 $35 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 18 $33 $0 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $36 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $66 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $16 $0 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $125 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $53 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $4 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $89 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $34 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $2 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $35 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $2 −$2 -100%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 14 $4 +$1 +19%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 13 $77 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 12 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 12 $36 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 11 $1 $0 -3%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 09 $81 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 22m
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $39 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $39 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 92¢ $36 23h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 89¢ $35 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $38 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $38 30h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $38 36h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $39 37h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $25 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $14 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $39 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $16 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $23 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $39 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $17 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $17 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $35 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $36 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $34 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $33 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $40 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $40 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 71¢ $36 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $3 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $29 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $32 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $21 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $10 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $2 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.91 · official $3.91 (match) · 311 history records