Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:13:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
30 0x306b…a535 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 232d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$47 (-9%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days+$47
14 days+$47
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$47
economics 38% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +11.1% +0.5% 25% 25% +4.8%
≤30d 4 +11.1% +0.5% 25% 25% +4.8%
≤90d 4 +11.1% +0.5% 25% 25% +4.8%
all 7 -8.1% -16.8% 29% 14% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 14% -19.0%
10% -24.8% 14% -26.8%
15% -32.1% 14% -33.8%
20% -38.7% 14% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$31 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage232d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $45 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $48 −$3 -6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 −$2 -5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$52 -51%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $98 +$104 +106%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Dec 01 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Dec 01 $100 −$3 -3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 25 $9 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $45 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 41¢ $11 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 41¢ $34 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $48 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 65¢ $48 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 20¢ $23 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 44¢ $27 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $202 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $78 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 5d
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? BUY Yes 55¢ $97 198d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 71¢ $97 198d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 73¢ $100 198d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $9 232d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.49 · official $44.49 (match) · 18 history records