Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:43:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x306d…dec9 sports 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,864 (-1%) realized −$9,750 · open +$886
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +118% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +51% what you keep after slip
Net edge+51%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate68%63W / 30L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,929per market
Trades / day43.0pace
Fees−$6,775est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$8,028now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 42d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$1,538
other 1% −$1,910
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+96.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +77.1% +60.3% 67% 43% -8.2%
≤30d 56 +204.0% +175.1% 75% 34% -5.8%
≤90d 93 +117.5% +96.7% 68% 31% -8.7%
all 93 +117.5% +96.7% 68% 31% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +96.7% 31% -8.7%
10% +77.9% 20% -17.5%
15% ← realistic here +60.7% 17% -25.5%
20% +45.0% 11% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +117% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$7,751) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +30% → late +203% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
17.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$701 vs −$1,617 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$8,028
Realized−$9,750
Unrealized+$886
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses63 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$6,775
Open positions10
Markets (closed)93 / 103
History coverage42d
Avg bet$6,929
Trades / day43.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Team Liquid 75¢ 100¢ $2,872 $3,833 +$961 (+33%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 55¢ $1,570 $1,635 +$65 (+4%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Paraguay 52¢ 55¢ $780 $817 +$38 (+5%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? No 42¢ 42¢ $420 $425 +$5 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 56¢ $350 $351 +$1 (+0%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Japan 69¢ 69¢ $345 $347 +$2 (+1%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 44¢ 44¢ $345 $344 −$1 (-0%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? No 27¢ 28¢ $270 $275 +$5 (+2%)
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Deep Cross Gaming 18¢ 0¢ $142 $0 −$141 (-100%)
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Deep Cross Gaming 12¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 28 $2,224 +$1,076 +48%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $840 +$160 +19%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $1,230 −$1,230 -100%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $2,280 −$1,220 -54%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $686 +$99 +14%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $9,375 +$361 +4%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $9,513 +$3,350 +35%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $18,085 +$1,016 +6%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $855 +$50 +6%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $15,975 −$1,936 -12%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $2,080 +$920 +44%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $405 +$95 +24%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 27 $2,445 +$1,555 +64%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $710 −$710 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $220 −$220 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $790 +$210 +27%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $800 +$200 +25%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 26 $18 +$2 +9%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $297 +$3 +1%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $7,647 +$448 +6%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $5,811 +$437 +8%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $5,351 +$627 +12%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $18,730 +$723 +4%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $23,399 +$1,491 +6%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $15,967 −$1,352 -8%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $6,033 −$115 -2%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $762 +$87 +11%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $17,899 +$718 +4%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $6,421 +$2,488 +39%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $11,131 +$3,342 +30%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $8,125 +$392 +5%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $22,016 −$216 -1%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $14,613 +$160 +1%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $14,164 +$1,074 +8%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $18,349 +$778 +4%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $11,618 +$874 +8%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $1,743 +$257 +15%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $7,560 +$778 +10%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $5,490 +$66 +1%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $4,876 +$1,855 +38%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $1,727 +$125 +7%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $1,466 +$32 +2%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $6,236 +$2,127 +34%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $2,236 +$60 +3%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner May 31 $13,842 −$751 -5%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $16,060 −$4,746 -30%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner May 31 $2,638 +$29 +1%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner May 30 $9,828 −$42 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $180 49m
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $138 49m
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $57 50m
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $11 50m
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $5 50m
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $149 51m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 93¢ $596 53m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 93¢ $741 54m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 93¢ $1,864 55m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 88¢ $1,746 58m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 12¢ $246 59m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 11¢ $246 59m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 31¢ $323 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 32¢ $342 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 7¢ $44 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 3¢ $41 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 2¢ $40 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 2¢ $2 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 3¢ $45 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 95¢ $1,943 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 80¢ $207 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 77¢ $1,591 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 78¢ $176 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 26¢ $273 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 69¢ $70 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 73¢ $919 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 70¢ $522 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 26¢ $532 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 79¢ $790 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 16¢ $328 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,027.90 · official $8,028.01 (match) · 1983 history records