Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:08:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
30 0x306e…42e7 crypto 1867 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 85d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,449 (+25%) realized +$4,287 · open +$162
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate25%515W / 1586L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day35.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$222now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,724
7 days+$1,977
14 days+$3,257
30 days+$3,257
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$6,234
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 390 -56.7% -60.8% 11% 11% +59.1%
≤30d 433 -38.1% -44.0% 19% 18% +75.0%
≤90d 2101 -4.4% -13.5% 25% 24% +19.3%
all 2101 -4.4% -13.5% 25% 24% +19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 24% +19.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 24% +7.9%
15% -29.3% 23% -2.5%
20% -36.3% 22% -12.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +32% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$6 · ×4.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$222
Realized+$4,287
Unrealized+$162
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses515 / 1586
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2101 / 1867
History coverage86d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day35.2
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 2101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Down 14¢ 50¢ $50 $180 +$130 (+259%)
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Down 12¢ 50¢ $10 $42 +$32 (+325%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - January 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 5, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 27, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 2, 12PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 2, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 1AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 11PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 6, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $2 +$4 +264%
Solana Up or Down - January 5, 4PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 22, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $42 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $11 39m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $11 40m
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $32 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $21 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $16 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $58 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $41 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $42 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $21 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $11 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $21 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $222.04 · official $222.04 (match) · 3500 history records