Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:10:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3070…1c9e sports 182 markets active 2h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%19W / 162L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$7
sports 25% −$3
politics 23% −$4
crypto 10% −$1
world 5% −$1
economics 4% −$2
culture 4% −$5
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 34 -0.3% -9.8% 6% 0% -9.8%
all 181 -0.2% -9.7% 10% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses19 / 162
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)181 / 182
History coverage165d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 181 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 97¢ 97¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $49 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $45 $0 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 18 $93 −$1 -1%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $148 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $83 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $205 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 30 $83 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 30 $105 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $88 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 30 $44 $0 -0%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 29 $76 −$1 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 29 $94 −$1 -1%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 29 $141 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 29 $45 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 28 $96 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 28 $363 −$1 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 27 $89 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 27 $175 $0 +0%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 27 $44 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 26 $92 $0 -0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 26 $85 −$1 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 25 $50 $0 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 25 $365 $0 -0%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 25 $38 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 24 $153 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 24 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Mar 24 $124 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 23 $48 $0 +0%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 23 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 22 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Mar 22 $143 $0 -0%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 22 $38 $0 -1%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 21 $39 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 21 $76 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $133 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Mar 20 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 20 $54 $0 -0%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 18 $141 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $99 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 17 $97 −$1 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $50 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 16 $46 $0 +0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 15 $102 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Mar 15 $103 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 14 $94 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $33 2h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $38 11d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $38 12d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $45 24d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $45 24d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 90¢ $41 32d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 92¢ $42 32d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $33 79d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $33 80d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $40 80d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $40 80d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $40 80d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $40 80d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $39 80d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $39 80d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $39 80d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $39 81d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $44 81d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $44 81d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $43 81d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $44 81d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 97¢ $35 81d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 97¢ $35 81d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $46 81d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $47 82d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 92¢ $44 82d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 92¢ $44 82d
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $45 82d
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 98¢ $45 82d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $38 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.06 · official $33.06 (match) · 702 history records