Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:57:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3072…e3f7 crypto 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$375 (+59%) realized +$375 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate50%15W / 15L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$37
other 38% +$386
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -16.3% -24.2% 50% 40% +49.2%
≤30d 30 -16.3% -24.2% 50% 40% +49.2%
≤90d 30 -16.3% -24.2% 50% 40% +49.2%
all 30 -16.3% -24.2% 50% 40% +49.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 40% +49.2%
10% -31.5% 30% +34.9%
15% -38.1% 20% +21.9%
20% -44.2% 17% +9.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +64% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +64% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$9 · ×3.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.49 per $1 lost it wins $3.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$375
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses15 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage3d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 18 $36 −$36 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $32 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $24 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$11 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 18 $34 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $27 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $22 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $18 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $18 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $29 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $12 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $9 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$2 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$4 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$7 +346%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $49 −$47 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $191 +$433 +226%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $36 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $37 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $31 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $17 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 65 history records