Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:10:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3077…6b45 sports 90 markets active 0h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9,308 (+9%) realized +$9,308 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate42%38W / 52L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$1,106per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$155est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$638
7 days+$4,660
14 days+$6,867
30 days+$6,991
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$7,271
sports 15% +$648
world 3% −$268
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.5% -9.0% 43% 43% -1.8%
≤30d 18 +14.3% +3.4% 50% 39% -2.1%
≤90d 38 +4.0% -5.9% 39% 26% -1.9%
all 90 -0.3% -9.8% 42% 19% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 19% -2.5%
10% -18.5% 7% -11.9%
15% -26.3% 3% -20.4%
20% -33.6% 2% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$319 vs −$87 · ×3.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.72 per $1 lost it wins $2.72
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9,308
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses38 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$155
Open positions0
Markets (closed)90 / 90
History coverage169d
Avg bet$1,106
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 90 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $19,792 +$3,705 +19%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $4 −$1 -12%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $296 +$34 +12%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $17,206 −$3,100 -18%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 $0 -9%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $17,016 +$4,023 +24%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11,840 +$1,045 +9%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $160 −$8 -5%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $3,003 +$289 +10%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,704 −$268 -10%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,655 −$257 -10%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7,236 +$1,406 +19%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 $0 -4%
Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $891 −$382 -43%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $0 +$1 +222%
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC end in a draw? May 30 $551 +$251 +46%
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,279 +$254 +20%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-05-29? May 25 $23 −$2 -10%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC end in a draw? May 25 $5 $0 -8%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-29? May 25 $23 −$2 -9%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $62 −$35 -57%
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1,225 +$117 +10%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC end in a draw? May 24 $34 −$11 -31%
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $34 −$13 -37%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $624 +$323 +52%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC end in a draw? May 23 $70 −$12 -17%
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $979 +$116 +12%
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC end in a draw? May 20 $81 +$7 +9%
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $7 $0 -5%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $11 −$1 -7%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 19 $257 −$20 -8%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 19 $347 −$9 -3%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $415 +$50 +12%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $198 +$14 +7%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $11 $0 -4%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC end in a draw? Apr 21 $3 $0 -6%
Nuggets vs. Jazz Mar 03 $73 −$5 -7%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Mar 02 $97 +$5 +6%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Mar 02 $331 −$119 -36%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Mar 02 $202 +$33 +16%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner Mar 01 $132 +$9 +7%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 4 Winner Mar 01 $49 +$4 +7%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 3 Winner Mar 01 $34 −$2 -6%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner Mar 01 $232 −$107 -46%
Warriors vs. Pelicans Feb 28 $24 −$1 -5%
Rockets vs. Magic Feb 28 $19 +$2 +10%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Feb 28 $27 +$4 +17%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Feb 28 $28 +$3 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 98¢ $2,546 26m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 98¢ $2,535 27m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 97¢ $2,477 28m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 94¢ $2,479 28m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 17¢ $193 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 45¢ $529 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 13¢ $589 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 12¢ $554 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 12¢ $1,119 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 5¢ $958 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 12¢ $1,533 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 12¢ $2,006 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 5¢ $1,018 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 6¢ $1,018 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 3¢ $1,019 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 95¢ $2,805 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 95¢ $2,805 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,490 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,489 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 93¢ $1,488 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 82¢ $830 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 82¢ $1,661 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 83¢ $3,363 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $2,261 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $2,261 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $2,263 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 2h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $37 40h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $37 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 894 history records