Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:21:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

30
0x3078…0389
world · 86 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,682 +24%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$240 · open +$281
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,698
Realized+$240
Unrealized+$281
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses45 / 26
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions445
Markets (closed)71 / 86
History coverage1d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day3499.0
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 445 History 71 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$240
7 days+$240
14 days+$240
30 days+$240
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? No 9¢ 70¢ $14 $108 +$95 (+683%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 23¢ 22¢ $105 $101 −$4 (-4%)
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? Yes 40¢ 58¢ $40 $58 +$18 (+45%)
Will Oro launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 24¢ 71¢ $19 $57 +$38 (+201%)
Will Zendaya and Tom Holland get married by December 31? No 10¢ 35¢ $14 $50 +$36 (+247%)
Relay FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 10¢ 33¢ $13 $42 +$30 (+230%)
Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal? Yes 41¢ 64¢ $25 $40 +$14 (+56%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? No 31¢ 23¢ $51 $38 −$13 (-26%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $41 $36 −$5 (-12%)
Will Diego Lopes become UFC champion in 2026? Yes 12¢ 17¢ $14 $21 +$6 (+43%)
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-05 House seat? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $14 $19 +$5 (+37%)
Will Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $14 $17 +$3 (+19%)
Will Brian Mundubile win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+4%)
Will 3jane launch a token by June 30, 2027? No 14¢ 18¢ $12 $16 +$4 (+29%)
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $14 $16 +$1 (+9%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 36¢ 26¢ $21 $15 −$6 (-26%)
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+5%)
Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+4%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? No 21¢ 22¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+2%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027? No 48¢ 48¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Will Qatar send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-10%)
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? Yes 26¢ 25¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-3%)
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $14 $12 −$3 (-19%)
Will Jack Antonoff attend Taylor Swift's wedding? No 30¢ 13¢ $26 $11 −$15 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$6 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$4 +300%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +52%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 12 $1 +$6 +619%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $2 +$5 +293%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 12 $2 +$4 +209%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -72%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +215%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $390 in June? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +200%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 12 $1 +$4 +382%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +160%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 12 $1 +$13 +1332%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 12 $1 +$14 +1056%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$65 +28147%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 12 $1 +$13 +1566%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 12 $1 −$3 -292%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +259%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 9? Jun 12 $1 −$2 -203%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 10? Jun 12 $0 +$2 +359%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 12 $0 −$3 -571%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 12 $0 +$4 +1110%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 8? Jun 12 $0 $0 +19%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 11? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +197%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 12 $1 +$4 +746%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 10? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +557%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +389%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in May? Jun 12 $0 $0 -18%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 8? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +559%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June? Jun 12 $0 +$14 +9286%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? Jun 12 $0 +$10 +2353%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $665 +$20 +3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 12 $21 +$3 +15%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $22 +$22 +98%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $13 +$4 +28%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 12 $120 +$10 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $224 −$3 -2%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 12 $42 +$18 +44%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $77 −$11 -14%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 12 $29 +$14 +50%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $94 −$6 -7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 12 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $2 $0 +28%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 12 $19 +$10 +54%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $105 −$2 -2%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $45 −$12 -26%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $90 −$3 -4%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $23 +$2 +8%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $18 −$2 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 50% +$33
tech 29% −$8
other 13% +$297
finance 6% +$36
politics 1% −$15
sports 1% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO BUY No 26¢ $1 0m
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO BUY No 26¢ $2 0m
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO BUY No 26¢ $2 0m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $4 2m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $4 2m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $4 2m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $3 3m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 10¢ $3 3m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 10¢ $4 3m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 41¢ $23 3m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 41¢ $23 3m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 41¢ $23 3m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 41¢ $16 3m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 10¢ $4 3m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 28¢ $10 3m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 28¢ $64 3m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 28¢ $64 3m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 28¢ $64 3m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 28¢ $64 3m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 28¢ $5 4m
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 4m
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 4m
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 4m
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 4m
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 4m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 9¢ $2 5m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 9¢ $2 5m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 9¢ $2 5m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 9¢ $2 5m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+202.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +234.1% +202.3% 63% 52% -3.8%
≤30d 71 +234.1% +202.3% 63% 52% -3.8%
≤90d 71 +234.1% +202.3% 63% 52% -3.8%
all 71 +234.1% +202.3% 63% 52% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3499.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +202.3% 52% -3.8%
10% ← realistic here +173.3% 46% -13.0%
15% +146.9% 42% -21.4%
20% +122.7% 39% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,698.42 · official $1,793.55 · 3500 history records