Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:34:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x307a…2554 crypto 192 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$59 (-0%) realized −$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate95%181W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day28.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$71
7 days−$120
14 days−$46
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$47
other 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -4.0% -13.1% 92% 12% -11.6%
≤30d 191 -1.1% -10.6% 95% 7% -9.9%
≤90d 191 -1.1% -10.6% 95% 7% -9.9%
all 191 -1.1% -10.6% 95% 7% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 7% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 1% -18.5%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$54 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses181 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)191 / 192
History coverage11d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day28.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 191 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$7 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $65 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$11 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $72 +$11 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $49 +$13 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $59 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $47 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $47 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $47 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $42 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $46 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $57 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $57 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $56 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $39 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $45 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $56 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $45 +$2 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $37 −$36 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$9 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$9 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $58 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $58 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $56 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $58 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $45 +$3 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $58 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $45 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $57 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $64 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $47 −$47 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $56 −$55 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $96 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $65 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $56 +$10 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $106 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $77 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $76 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $78 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $78 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $78 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $78 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $72 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $60 50m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $36 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $34 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $52 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $72 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $49 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $59 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $12 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $26 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $60 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $59 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $47 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $47 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $42 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $46 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $57 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $57 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $56 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $39 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $45 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $56 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $45 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $37 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $52 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $52 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $54 14h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $58 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.82 · official $0.82 (match) · 487 history records