Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:15:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

30
0x307a…3a96
crypto · 67 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$39 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$84 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$84
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses35 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)66 / 67
History coverage1d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day187.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 66 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$84
7 days−$84
14 days−$84
30 days−$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Down 89¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$8 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $45 −$44 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $22 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $60 −$10 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $46 −$16 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $27 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $63 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $55 −$11 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $28 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $54 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $47 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$30 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $53 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $37 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $27 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$10 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$4 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $37 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $40 −$10 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $7 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $19 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $12 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $45 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $9 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $13 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $9 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $39 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $16 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $19 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -20.1% -27.8% 53% 33% -15.2%
≤30d 66 -20.1% -27.8% 53% 33% -15.2%
≤90d 66 -20.1% -27.8% 53% 33% -15.2%
all 66 -20.1% -27.8% 53% 33% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover187.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.8% 33% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -34.7% 15% -23.3%
15% -41.0% 12% -30.7%
20% -46.8% 5% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.14 · official $0.14 (match) · 230 history records