Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:28:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x307d…8d18 politics 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%1W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$1
other 25% $0
crypto 12% $0
sports 6% $0
world 6% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 4 -0.5% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 9% 0% -9.7%
all 16 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses1 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage111d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $92 −$1 -1%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $93 −$1 -1%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $93 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 23 $93 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $93 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $93 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $94 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $95 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $95 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 06 $95 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 27 $95 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 17 $95 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 14 $95 $0 +0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 11 $95 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 04 $95 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 02 $95 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $91 1h
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $92 13h
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $92 11d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $93 11d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $93 22d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $93 22d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $93 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $71 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $0 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $0 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $22 27d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $93 31d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $93 31d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $93 37d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $93 37d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $94 63d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $94 63d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $94 65d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $95 65d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $95 68d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $95 69d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $95 74d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $95 74d
Netanyahu out by March 31? SELL No 99¢ $95 84d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $95 84d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $95 93d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $95 94d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $95 96d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $95 97d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $95 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records