Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:46:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x307e…a953 crypto 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$646 (-35%) realized −$291 · open −$355
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%5W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$961now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 101d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$355
crypto 15% −$119
finance 11% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-50.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 23 -45.2% -50.4% 22% 22% -72.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.4% 22% -72.1%
10% -55.2% 22% -74.8%
15% -59.5% 22% -77.2%
20% -63.5% 22% -79.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -69% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -61% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$22 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$961
Realized−$291
Unrealized−$355
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses5 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage101d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,316 $961 −$355 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 26 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 09 $17 −$17 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 09 $40 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 09 $24 +$33 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 09 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Mar 09 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 08 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 08 $6 +$6 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 08 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 08 $20 −$13 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 08 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 08 $10 +$16 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Mar 08 $10 −$6 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 08 $10 −$6 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Mar 08 $10 +$6 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 08 $10 −$5 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 08 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Mar 08 $5 +$8 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Mar 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $132 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $101 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 4d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $904 4d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $211 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? BUY Yes 0¢ $200 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $17 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $10 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $30 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $57 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $24 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $20 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $3 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $12 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $20 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $7 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $10 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $4 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $4 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $16 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $961.26 · official $961.26 (match) · 45 history records