Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:42:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3080…fa4a crypto 413 markets active 1d ago coverage 218d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,195 (-11%) realized −$3,158 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate28%115W / 297L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days−$115
14 days−$395
30 days−$1,192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,549
other 0% −$32
sports 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -31.5% -38.1% 25% 21% -25.9%
≤30d 107 -17.5% -25.4% 33% 30% -38.7%
≤90d 357 -40.6% -46.3% 23% 20% -60.8%
all 412 -18.7% -26.4% 28% 24% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 24% -20.5%
10% -33.5% 22% -28.1%
15% -39.9% 19% -35.0%
20% -45.8% 17% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$123 vs −$60 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$3,158
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses115 / 297
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)412 / 413
History coverage218d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 412 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Yes 12¢ 5¢ $61 $24 −$37 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $6 −$6 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 26 $80 −$11 -13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $52 +$96 +185%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? Jun 26 $37 −$7 -19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11AM ET Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? Jun 26 $38 −$6 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3PM ET Jun 26 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $79 −$44 -56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? Jun 26 $111 −$45 -40%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 25 $76 −$16 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $2 +$4 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -90%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 22? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12PM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $6 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$11 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9AM ET Jun 22 $13 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 18? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 18 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 14? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $42 −$31 -72%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 18 $151 −$117 -77%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 18 $103 −$29 -28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 18 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $27 +$9 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +55%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $12 +$10 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$4 +86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $38 −$1 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $23 +$10 +42%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $97 +$42 +43%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $19 +$15 +77%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $21 −$1 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$15 +249%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $25 +$9 +34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$5 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 34h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $14 44h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 45h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 3¢ $34 45h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $28 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? SELL Yes 74¢ $63 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? SELL Yes 73¢ $25 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 47h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? SELL Yes 61¢ $60 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $20 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $24 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $6 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 16¢ $57 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $22 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? SELL Yes 34¢ $35 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 20¢ $23 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.93 · official $23.93 (match) · 2825 history records