Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:13:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3081…f8ad crypto 162 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (205 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$996 (+16%) realized +$996 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +81% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +39% what you keep after slip
Net edge+39%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%83W / 79L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day204.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,657
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (205 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+63.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 162 +80.6% +63.4% 51% 51% +14.7%
≤30d 162 +80.6% +63.4% 51% 51% +14.7%
≤90d 162 +80.6% +63.4% 51% 51% +14.7%
all 162 +80.6% +63.4% 51% 51% +14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover204.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +63.4% 51% +14.7%
10% ← realistic here +47.7% 51% +3.7%
15% +33.5% 51% -6.3%
20% +20.4% 51% -15.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +81% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +65% → late +97% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$44 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$996
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses83 / 79
Open positions0
Markets (closed)162 / 162
History coverage6d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day204.5
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 162 Trades
no open positions (77 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $776 +$724 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $54 −$51 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $1,033 −$998 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 20 $1,035 −$1,000 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $50 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $28 +$72 +257%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 20 $17 +$43 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $43 −$23 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $22 +$58 +264%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$14 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $28 +$72 +257%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $27 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 19 $28 −$28 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $12 +$28 +239%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $17 +$43 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 19 $23 +$57 +251%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 19 $12 +$28 +239%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $12 +$28 +239%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 19 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 19 $17 +$43 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $40 +$100 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 19 $35 +$65 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $15 +$45 +300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $28 +$72 +257%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $27 +$68 +257%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $28 +$72 +257%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$14 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$14 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $28 +$72 +257%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $28 +$72 +257%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $28 +$72 +257%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$14 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $28 +$72 +257%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$89 +292%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 19 $12 +$28 +239%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $28 −$28 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $776 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1,033 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1,035 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1317 history records