Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:36:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3081…5834 sports 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (116 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$344 (+6%) realized +$344 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate55%16W / 13L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day115.9pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$761
sports 39% +$34
crypto 1% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (116 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -15.5% -23.5% 55% 38% +6.1%
≤30d 29 -15.5% -23.5% 55% 38% +6.1%
≤90d 29 -15.5% -23.5% 55% 38% +6.1%
all 29 -15.5% -23.5% 55% 38% +6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover115.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.5% 38% +6.1%
10% ← realistic here -30.9% 14% -4.0%
15% -37.5% 7% -13.3%
20% -43.7% 3% -21.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$27 · ×2.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.21 per $1 lost it wins $3.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$344
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses16 / 13
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage2d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day115.9
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 46¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 +$7 +14%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $429 +$37 +8%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $621 +$32 +5%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $5 −$4 -76%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $20 −$13 -62%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $32 −$13 -41%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $712 +$255 +36%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $16 −$7 -42%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $82 −$72 -87%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $12 −$4 -34%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $307 +$42 +14%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $725 +$195 +27%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $462 +$331 +72%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $239 −$104 -44%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 24 $307 +$59 +19%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$1 -22%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $131 −$97 -74%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $169 +$12 +7%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $8 +$2 +20%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $544 +$45 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $43 −$18 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 23 $16 −$1 -5%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $8 +$2 +32%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 −$17 -88%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $53 +$9 +17%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 23 $1 $0 -32%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $337 +$73 +22%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $154 +$23 +15%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $90 +$5 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 46¢ $5 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 95¢ $100 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 92¢ $28 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY No 97¢ $100 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY No 98¢ $100 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY No 99¢ $100 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY No 99¢ $100 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY No 99¢ $100 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 91¢ $301 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 12¢ $1 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 25¢ $8 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 32¢ $12 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 56¢ $8 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $967 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 87¢ $50 1h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $2 1h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY No 83¢ $121 1h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes $10 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 2h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 12¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.82 · official $32.82 (match) · 264 history records