Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:20:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3082…78a8 crypto 131 markets active 0h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$5 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate56%73W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% +$11
other 20% −$21
sports 3% +$5
politics 3% −$3
world 2% −$1
culture 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +5.9% -4.2% 45% 32% -10.1%
≤30d 40 +5.9% -4.2% 45% 32% -10.1%
≤90d 40 +5.9% -4.2% 45% 32% -10.1%
all 130 +0.7% -8.9% 56% 43% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 43% -11.0%
10% -17.6% 32% -19.5%
15% -25.6% 28% -27.3%
20% -32.9% 22% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses73 / 57
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)130 / 131
History coverage139d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +92%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +134%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$10 +934%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2 +$1 +52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +122%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +128%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Timberwolves vs. Warriors Mar 13 $2 $0 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 13 $23 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 06 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 06 $7 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Mar 06 $4 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Mar 06 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Mar 06 $2 +$1 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 3¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 291 history records