Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:26:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
30 0x3088…564e other 20 markets active 10h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$1 (+1%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$4
sports 5% +$5
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+37.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +51.7% +37.3% 67% 33% -6.7%
≤30d 3 +51.7% +37.3% 67% 33% -6.7%
≤90d 3 +51.7% +37.3% 67% 33% -6.7%
all 3 +51.7% +37.3% 67% 33% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +37.3% 33% -6.7%
10% +24.1% 33% -15.6%
15% +12.1% 33% -23.8%
20% +1.1% 33% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +52% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions17
Markets (closed)3 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 95¢ 94¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 83¢ 81¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +250%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $3 10h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 10h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 33h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 38h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 40h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 40h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 40h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 40h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 95¢ $10 40h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 40h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 40h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 40h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 40h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 40h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 40h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 40h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 40h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 40h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 40h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 40h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.30 · official $85.31 (match) · 24 history records