Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x308f…8607 other 507 markets active 9h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$412 (-3%) realized −$219 · open −$193
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate84%407W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$545now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days−$7
14 days+$33
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$187
sports 25% −$12
crypto 21% −$77
world 11% −$207
weather 7% +$9
politics 6% −$9
culture 2% +$28
finance 1% +$11
tech 1% +$17
economics 0% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 115 -1.7% -11.1% 88% 44% -9.8%
≤30d 243 +0.1% -9.4% 88% 45% -10.1%
≤90d 477 -3.6% -12.7% 84% 47% -14.1%
all 484 -2.5% -11.8% 84% 47% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 47% -11.6%
10% -20.3% 16% -20.1%
15% -28.0% 4% -27.8%
20% -35.0% 1% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$23 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$545
Realized−$219
Unrealized−$193
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses407 / 77
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions23
Markets (closed)484 / 507
History coverage113d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 484 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 17? No 95¢ 100¢ $91 $95 +$5 (+5%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 83¢ $65 $68 +$3 (+5%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 52¢ 52¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+2%)
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 90¢ $41 $45 +$4 (+9%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? No 87¢ 96¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+10%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? No 92¢ 90¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 91¢ 90¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Yes 96¢ 85¢ $23 $21 −$3 (-11%)
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 92¢ 92¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Meeting? No 94¢ 94¢ $17 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? No 91¢ 97¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? No 96¢ 100¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No $218 $14 −$204 (-94%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? No 91¢ 90¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 18? No 92¢ 98¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+6%)
Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election? Yes 84¢ 99¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+18%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 30¢ 18¢ $18 $11 −$7 (-38%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? No 78¢ 100¢ $6 $7 +$2 (+28%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? No 85¢ 100¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? No 94¢ 90¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? Yes 95¢ 87¢ $6 $6 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $7 $0 +7%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $24 +$4 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $13 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $17 +$2 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $25 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 +$1 +9%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $25 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $13 +$2 +13%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $6 +$1 +16%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $20 +$2 +11%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $25 +$2 +7%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $8 +$1 +12%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $74 +$7 +10%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 +$1 +18%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 15 $15 +$2 +14%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 15 $23 +$2 +10%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $8 +$1 +12%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +11%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $50 +$8 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $13 +$1 +6%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $19 +$1 +4%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $14 +$2 +14%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14? Jun 15 $11 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $25 +$5 +20%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $12 +$2 +18%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 +$1 +5%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $22 +$2 +11%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $16 +$2 +11%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 14 $30 +$2 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $29 +$2 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $19 +$2 +9%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $4 +$1 +21%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $25 +$1 +5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $25 +$2 +6%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 +$2 +27%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$4 +17%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 14 $25 +$4 +17%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $70 −$70 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $88 +$10 +11%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will CSD Colo-Colo win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 +$2 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June BUY No 94¢ $6 9h
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June BUY No 94¢ $6 9h
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June BUY No 94¢ $6 9h
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? BUY Yes 94¢ $6 9h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY Yes 95¢ $6 14h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $16 14h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $13 14h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $14 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $30 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $78 23h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $22 30h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $23 30h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $23 30h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $23 30h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $7 31h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $24 32h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 91¢ $24 32h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 92¢ $20 32h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $40 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $50 37h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $14 38h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $7 38h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $23 38h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 78¢ $6 39h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? BUY No 85¢ $6 39h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 39h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $25 39h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $20 43h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $544.95 · official $544.87 (match) · 1095 history records