Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:37:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3093…ef27 other 124 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$31 (-0%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate15%18W / 105L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$14
politics 26% −$10
sports 15% −$8
economics 4% −$1
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% −$1
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 85 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
all 123 -2.9% -12.2% 15% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 5% -9.6%
10% -20.6% 2% -18.3%
15% -28.2% 2% -26.2%
20% -35.3% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses18 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)123 / 124
History coverage130d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $23 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $25 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $251 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 29 $157 $0 +0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $376 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $390 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $172 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 24 $166 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 22 $211 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $148 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 22 $188 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $176 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $217 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 17 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $182 $0 +0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $185 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $162 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $164 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $155 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $195 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $203 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $592 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $215 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? May 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? May 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 20 $54 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $402 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $250 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $460 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $245 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $217 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $239 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $406 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $173 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $194 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $249 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $206 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $248 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 14 $258 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $183 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 13 $178 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $210 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $251 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $250 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $1,034 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $196 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $459 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $210 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $498 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $33 1h
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $23 1h
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $23 16h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 14d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 14d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 14d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 15d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $35 20d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $35 20d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $157 20d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $157 23d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $168 23d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $168 24d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $207 24d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $207 25d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $172 25d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $172 25d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $166 26d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $166 26d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $211 27d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $211 27d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $148 28d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $148 28d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $188 28d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $188 29d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $183 30d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $183 31d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $176 31d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $176 32d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $217 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.98 · official $32.98 (match) · 347 history records