Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:15:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3096…71c6 sports 152 markets active 2h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$104 (-4%) realized −$104 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%68W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$52
other 16% −$49
crypto 9% −$1
politics 0% −$4
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -58.7% -62.6% 25% 25% -64.2%
≤30d 4 -58.7% -62.6% 25% 25% -64.2%
≤90d 152 -3.9% -13.0% 45% 43% -13.1%
all 152 -3.9% -13.0% 45% 43% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 43% -13.1%
10% -21.3% 38% -21.4%
15% -28.9% 34% -29.0%
20% -35.9% 28% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$9 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$104
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses68 / 84
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)152 / 152
History coverage76d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 152 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $13 −$10 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +48%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals May 01 $113 −$12 -10%
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Nepal vs United Arab Emirates May 01 $9 +$2 +17%
T20 Challenge Trophy, Women: Nepal vs Vanuatu Apr 30 $33 −$32 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 29 $5 +$4 +77%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 29 $78 +$13 +17%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 28 $45 −$16 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs. FC Schalke 04 end in a draw? Apr 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 26 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 26 $1 +$8 +779%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Chennai Super Kings Apr 18 $14 +$12 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 15 $39 −$36 -91%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $10 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 15 $27 +$14 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 15 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 14 $19 +$5 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? Apr 14 $4 −$2 -38%
Will Moreirense FC win on 2026-04-10? Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Red Star FC vs. SC Bastia end in a draw? Apr 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Albacete Balompié win on 2026-04-11? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 14 $120 −$15 -13%
Will Incheon United FC vs. Ulsan HD FC end in a draw? Apr 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club vs. Al Shabab Saudi Club end in a draw? Apr 14 $15 +$12 +81%
Will Al Shabab Saudi Club win on 2026-04-23? Apr 14 $11 −$10 -88%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 14 $15 +$10 +64%
Will Brentford FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? Apr 11 $8 −$6 -82%
Will Charlton Athletic FC vs. Preston North End FC end in a draw? Apr 11 $2 −$1 -46%
Will Leicester City FC vs. Swansea City AFC end in a draw? Apr 11 $2 −$1 -30%
Will RB Leipzig vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw? Apr 11 $9 −$7 -73%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Delhi Capitals Apr 11 $33 −$2 -5%
Will Arsenal FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw? Apr 11 $5 −$2 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $8 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 3d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals BUY Rajasthan Royals 21¢ $8 45d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals SELL Rajasthan Royals 54¢ $98 45d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals BUY Rajasthan Royals 56¢ $104 45d
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Nepal vs United Arab Emirates SELL Nepal 59¢ $11 45d
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Nepal vs United Arab Emirates BUY Nepal 49¢ $9 45d
T20 Challenge Trophy, Women: Nepal vs Vanuatu BUY Vanuatu 22¢ $12 46d
T20 Challenge Trophy, Women: Nepal vs Vanuatu BUY Vanuatu 30¢ $9 46d
T20 Challenge Trophy, Women: Nepal vs Vanuatu BUY Vanuatu 30¢ $1 46d
T20 Challenge Trophy, Women: Nepal vs Vanuatu BUY Vanuatu 30¢ $1 46d
T20 Challenge Trophy, Women: Nepal vs Vanuatu BUY Vanuatu 40¢ $10 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 47d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad 68¢ $63 47d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 61¢ $58 47d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad 35¢ $28 47d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 20¢ $5 47d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 26¢ $15 47d
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Punjab Kings 54¢ $50 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $8 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 363 history records