Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:17:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
30 0x3099…3896 other 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$214 (+4%) realized +$215 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate62%31W / 19L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day14.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$24
sports 10% +$163
crypto 7% +$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -22.2% -29.6% 62% 34% -6.5%
≤30d 50 -22.2% -29.6% 62% 34% -6.5%
≤90d 50 -22.2% -29.6% 62% 34% -6.5%
all 50 -22.2% -29.6% 62% 34% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.6% 34% -6.5%
10% -36.3% 16% -15.5%
15% -42.5% 12% -23.6%
20% -48.1% 10% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$25 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized+$215
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses31 / 19
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)50 / 54
History coverage7d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Japan vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? Jun 26 $1 +$1 +129%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $201 +$24 +12%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $22 +$7 +31%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $651 +$28 +4%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $10 +$2 +19%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 25 $30 +$1 +5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$15 +76%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $146 +$21 +14%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $151 +$28 +18%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $55 +$4 +7%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $50 +$15 +29%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Morocco 1 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 24 $221 +$43 +19%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $211 +$18 +9%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $161 −$130 -80%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $330 +$17 +5%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $306 +$30 +10%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $271 +$30 +11%
France leading at halftime? Jun 23 $200 +$8 +4%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $65 +$3 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $100 +$6 +6%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $200 +$12 +6%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $201 +$43 +21%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $35 −$34 -96%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $150 +$87 +58%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 −$149 -74%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $285 +$12 +4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $199 +$87 +44%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $260 +$10 +4%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -90%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 20 $241 +$22 +9%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $10 −$9 -85%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $238 +$28 +12%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $222 +$15 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $199 +$24 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 21¢ $1 12h
Japan vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 12h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 12h
Sweden leading at halftime? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 12h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $10 12h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $201 12h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 13h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 13h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 99¢ $350 13h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 99¢ $327 13h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 14h
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 14h
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? BUY Yes 95¢ $30 14h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 14h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 91¢ $301 14h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 35h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 35h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $167 35h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $178 35h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 89¢ $125 37h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 93¢ $55 38h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 39h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $151 40h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.14 · official $129.14 (match) · 118 history records