Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:52:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x309a…2610 crypto 94 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (474 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$565 (+3%) realized +$565 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate50%47W / 47L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day474.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$563
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (474 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 -4.2% -13.3% 50% 45% -12.6%
≤30d 94 -4.2% -13.3% 50% 45% -12.6%
≤90d 94 -4.2% -13.3% 50% 45% -12.6%
all 94 -4.2% -13.3% 50% 45% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover474.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 45% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 37% -20.9%
15% -29.2% 28% -28.6%
20% -36.1% 21% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -19% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$114 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$565
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses47 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)94 / 94
History coverage1d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day474.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 94 Trades
no open positions (43 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 24 $328 +$61 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 24 $187 −$180 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $243 −$70 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 24 $154 +$67 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 24 $103 +$59 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $517 −$408 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $651 −$638 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 24 $417 −$400 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $104 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $321 +$218 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 24 $258 −$250 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $33 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $102 +$30 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 24 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 24 $618 +$339 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $670 −$262 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 24 $629 +$148 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 24 $121 −$115 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 24 $311 −$179 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 24 $178 −$45 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 24 $102 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 24 $226 −$20 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 24 $117 −$110 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 24 $106 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 24 $104 +$78 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 24 $108 −$101 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 24 $11 +$25 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 24 $569 +$1,229 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 24 $213 −$208 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 24 $315 +$214 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 24 $288 −$126 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 24 $513 +$108 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 24 $153 −$6 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 24 $408 −$12 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 24 $301 −$290 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 24 $241 −$236 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 24 $205 +$65 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 24 $204 +$47 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 24 $341 +$51 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 23 $142 +$32 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 23 $440 +$120 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 23 $461 +$34 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 23 $393 −$382 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 23 $133 −$133 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $18 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $11 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $83 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $183 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $70 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $52 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $21 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $192 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $9 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $103 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $51 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 603 history records