Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:59:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x309b…40a1 crypto 722 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$467 (-9%) realized −$468 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate48%346W / 372L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$122
7 days+$92
14 days+$93
30 days−$393
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$729
weather 3% +$112
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -23.2% -30.5% 38% 33% +55.6%
≤30d 532 -12.7% -21.1% 40% 34% -21.3%
≤90d 715 -10.7% -19.2% 48% 29% -19.1%
all 718 -10.7% -19.2% 48% 29% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 29% -20.8%
10% -27.0% 21% -28.3%
15% -34.0% 14% -35.3%
20% -40.5% 10% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$468
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses346 / 372
Open positions4
Markets (closed)718 / 722
History coverage132d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 718 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 27? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 27? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 27? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 27? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+225%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 26 $30 +$37 +124%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 26? Jun 26 $27 +$84 +314%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $4 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $2 +$4 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 21 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $3 +$3 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $6 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 30m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 35m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 27? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 36m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 36m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 27? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 36m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 36m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 37m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 27? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 37m
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 27? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 37m
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 27? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 37m
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 27? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 37m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 38m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 27? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 38m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 50m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 27? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 52m
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 27? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 56m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 56m
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 27? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 56m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 56m
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 27? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 56m
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 27? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 57m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 57m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 57m
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 27? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 57m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL Yes 97¢ $67 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 26? SELL Yes 98¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 26? SELL Yes 98¢ $91 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 27? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 27? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 27? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.48 · official $7.48 (match) · 3000 history records