Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:14:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
30 0x309d…53a1 sports 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$56 (+24%) realized +$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$52
14 days+$55
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$17
other 41% +$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +45.6% +31.7% 75% 75% +24.9%
≤30d 8 +18.3% +7.0% 62% 62% +14.6%
≤90d 8 +18.3% +7.0% 62% 62% +14.6%
all 8 +18.3% +7.0% 62% 62% +14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.0% 62% +14.6%
10% -3.2% 50% +3.6%
15% -12.6% 50% -6.4%
20% -21.1% 50% -15.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$20 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.92 per $1 lost it wins $1.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage13d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $50 +$9 +18%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $30 +$34 +113%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 25 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $25 +$39 +152%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$11 +55%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 +$22 +109%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 95¢ $30 13h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 13h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 15h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 15h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Czechia 70¢ $30 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $25 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 8d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $10 11d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 47¢ $20 11d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $20 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.74 · official $29.74 (match) · 17 history records