Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:14:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x309d…40dc world 107 markets active 1h ago coverage 332d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate38%40W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$3
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$7
politics 23% +$2
other 20% +$2
sports 16% −$3
economics 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
finance 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -2.0% -11.4% 10% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 25 +21.1% +9.5% 28% 4% -9.6%
≤90d 78 +8.2% -2.1% 40% 4% -9.6%
all 105 +6.1% -4.0% 38% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 3% -9.6%
10% -13.2% 2% -18.3%
15% -21.6% 2% -26.2%
20% -29.3% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

332d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses40 / 65
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)105 / 107
History coverage332d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 95¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 88¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $43 $0 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $41 −$2 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $10 −$1 -14%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $41 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $175 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $77 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $115 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 06 $78 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $78 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $84 −$1 -1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $37 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $60 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 30 $116 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $76 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $38 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $77 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $41 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $75 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 25 $42 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 19 $43 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $44 −$5 -11%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 18 $40 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 18 $48 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $1 $0 +7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 16 $48 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $48 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $48 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $4 $0 +8%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $47 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $48 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $93 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $124 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $44 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $87 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $43 +$1 +2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $7 $0 +6%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $88 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $71 −$3 -4%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $51 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $95 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 20 $135 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 17 $2 $0 +18%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $133 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $38 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 4h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $42 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $43 11h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $17 16h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $21 16h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $38 21h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $43 22h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $43 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $25 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $8 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $17 43h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 88¢ $3 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 88¢ $36 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $35 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $6 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $8 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $5 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $4 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $41 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $41 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $40 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.62 · official $38.14 (match) · 436 history records