Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:41:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

30
0x30a0…2437
other · 35 markets active 5h ago
1.5score
+$14 +23%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$13 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$25
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses8 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)23 / 35
History coverage5d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit34%
Chart Positions 12 History 23 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 95¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Netherlands leading at halftime? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +54%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 +$7 +649%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$6 +291%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +596%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +172%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $8 +$3 +43%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 +$4 +436%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 78% +$4
sports 12% +$10
crypto 7% $0
world 2% $0
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes $1 5h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes $1 5h
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 5h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $1 5h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 6h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 15h
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? BUY Yes $1 15h
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 15h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? BUY Yes $1 15h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 15h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 15h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 15h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 15h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 28h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 28h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 36h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 36h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 36h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +36.4% +23.4% 35% 35% +22.2%
≤30d 23 +36.4% +23.4% 35% 35% +22.2%
≤90d 23 +36.4% +23.4% 35% 35% +22.2%
all 23 +36.4% +23.4% 35% 35% +22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.4% 35% +22.2%
10% +11.6% 35% +10.5%
15% +0.8% 35% -0.2%
20% -9.0% 30% -10.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.91 · official $24.92 (match) · 64 history records