Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:52:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30a2…deac sports 799 markets active 2h ago coverage 505d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$449 (+1%) realized +$449 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate78%626W / 173L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$259est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$151
7 days−$183
14 days−$54
30 days+$344
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$739
weather 14% −$485
other 2% −$63
crypto 1% −$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -6.0% -15.0% 78% 40% -12.5%
≤30d 325 -1.0% -10.4% 78% 44% -8.1%
≤90d 752 -0.9% -10.3% 79% 44% -8.7%
all 799 -1.6% -11.0% 78% 44% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 44% -9.4%
10% -19.5% 23% -18.0%
15% -27.3% 13% -25.9%
20% -34.4% 7% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$48 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

505d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$449
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses626 / 173
Est. fees paid−$259
Open positions0
Markets (closed)799 / 799
History coverage505d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 799 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $94 +$3 +3%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 19 $23 +$2 +7%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $63 +$16 +26%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 18 $81 +$5 +6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $73 +$9 +12%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $52 +$20 +39%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $50 +$1 +3%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $51 +$100 +198%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $55 −$54 -99%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 18 $51 +$4 +7%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $72 +$21 +29%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $59 +$14 +24%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $77 −$77 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $7 +$1 +8%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $71 −$71 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $71 +$13 +18%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $64 +$6 +10%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 17 $164 +$10 +6%
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 17 $134 +$19 +15%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $110 +$36 +33%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $99 +$10 +10%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $175 −$26 -15%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $43 +$3 +6%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $27 +$7 +24%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $62 +$6 +10%
Spread: Austria (-3.5) Jun 17 $57 +$5 +8%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 +$9 +17%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $92 +$17 +19%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $37 +$5 +13%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $75 +$12 +16%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 17 $35 +$7 +21%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $57 +$11 +19%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $110 +$7 +6%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $54 +$6 +11%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $55 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$4 +4%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $95 +$4 +4%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $92 +$4 +4%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $86 +$6 +7%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $29 +$1 +4%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $45 +$7 +16%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $47 +$2 +5%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $73 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 100¢ $97 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 97¢ $68 2h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 97¢ $21 2h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 97¢ $5 2h
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) SELL Korea Republic 100¢ $25 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Korea Republic 99¢ $79 3h
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) BUY Korea Republic 93¢ $23 5h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 78¢ $63 5h
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) BUY Czechia 94¢ $81 13h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $81 14h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 89¢ $73 14h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $72 15h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 74¢ $15 15h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 74¢ $2 15h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 69¢ $35 15h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp SELL Tommy Paul 99¢ $51 15h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 96¢ $2 15h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 96¢ $48 15h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M SELL KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $151 16h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY KT Rolster Challengers 33¢ $30 19h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY KT Rolster Challengers 33¢ $5 19h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY KT Rolster Challengers 33¢ $4 19h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY KT Rolster Challengers 33¢ $12 19h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $55 24h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury SELL Las Vegas Aces 99¢ $55 25h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Las Vegas Aces 92¢ $51 25h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $19 26h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $5 26h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 91¢ $18 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2576 history records