Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:57:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30a2…ef2b crypto 145 markets active 0h ago coverage 197d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$235 (-4%) realized −$197 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%74W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$282
7 days+$282
14 days+$282
30 days+$275
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$14
other 5% −$70
sports 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +15.0% +4.0% 58% 58% -0.7%
≤30d 76 +12.2% +1.5% 58% 58% -0.9%
≤90d 76 +12.2% +1.5% 58% 58% -0.9%
all 144 -8.0% -16.8% 51% 49% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 49% -10.1%
10% -24.8% 39% -18.7%
15% -32.0% 34% -26.6%
20% -38.7% 29% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$25 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized−$197
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses74 / 70
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)144 / 145
History coverage197d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Up 52¢ 36¢ $120 $82 −$38 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 24 $179 −$83 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 24 $144 +$99 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 24 $93 −$90 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 24 $122 −$79 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 24 $31 +$34 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $42 +$34 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 24 $83 +$79 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 24 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 24 $41 +$15 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 24 $62 +$58 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 24 $84 +$196 +234%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 24 $41 +$34 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $111 +$19 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 24 $103 +$70 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 24 $41 +$21 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $50 +$50 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 24 $33 +$20 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 24 $58 −$32 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 24 $33 +$33 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 24 $25 +$22 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 24 $25 +$26 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 24 $56 +$39 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 24 $43 −$42 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 24 $17 +$15 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 24 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $25 +$32 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 24 $25 +$31 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 24 $58 +$48 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $62 −$22 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 24 $19 +$20 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 24 $19 +$19 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 24 $37 +$9 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 24 $14 +$5 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 24 $25 +$14 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 24 $9 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 24 $14 +$16 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 22 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 22 $69 −$66 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $79 −$76 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 22 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $90 +$34 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $41 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $41 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $41 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $11 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $41 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $65 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $41 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $18 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $21 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $41 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $21 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $41 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $41 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $21 19m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.33 · official $73.05 · 841 history records