Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:39:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
30 0x30a4…72e1 crypto 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 506d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate81%43W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$22
crypto 9% +$2
politics 3% $0
tech 3% +$1
sports 1% $0
economics 1% $0
world 0% −$3
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 53 -1.6% -11.0% 81% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

506d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses43 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage506d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $67 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April? May 05 $53 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? Apr 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? Apr 02 $31 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? Mar 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Mar 03 $47 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $54 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in December? Jan 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in December? Jan 02 $44 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in November? Dec 03 $45 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in October? Nov 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September? Oct 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Oct 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 04 $37 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? Sep 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $38 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? Aug 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? Aug 04 $44 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Jul 03 $25 $0 +0%
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? Jun 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in May? Jun 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 11 $5,724 −$22 -0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? May 02 $2 $0 +0%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 02 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 02 $7 $0 +1%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 02 $8 $0 +1%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 02 $9 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 20% on April 30? May 02 $13 $0 +2%
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May? May 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Dalton Knecht win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 18 $37 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Apr 16 $35 $0 -0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the second most seats in the next Ca Apr 15 $45 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 12 $38 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 10 $40 $0 -0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $7 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $9 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,800.00 again by March 31? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Bloc Québécois win the popular vote in Canada's next election Mar 26 $39 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Mar 25 $50 $0 -0%
Will Marcel Ciolacu win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 19 $33 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.30-1.34ºC in February 20 Mar 08 $15 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 05 $11 $0 +1%
Will Solana hit $250 by February 28 2025? Mar 05 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $63 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $60 30d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $13 61d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April? BUY No 100¢ $53 62d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $11 90d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $16 91d
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? BUY No 99¢ $31 92d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? BUY No 100¢ $17 122d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? BUY No 100¢ $47 122d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 148d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 149d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 150d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in December? BUY No 100¢ $19 181d
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in December? BUY No 100¢ $44 182d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in November? BUY No 100¢ $45 212d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 241d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 242d
Will Solana dip to $150 in October? BUY No 100¢ $40 242d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $8 271d
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? BUY No 100¢ $16 272d
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $37 273d
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? BUY No 100¢ $6 301d
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? BUY No 100¢ $23 301d
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $38 302d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? BUY No 100¢ $18 333d
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? BUY No 100¢ $44 334d
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $25 363d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $13 393d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 394d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.79 · official $62.79 (match) · 113 history records