Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:18:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30a7…d514 other 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 529d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate44%28W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$5
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$5
other 28% −$30
politics 18% +$18
sports 16% +$17
culture 1% −$18
weather 0% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -16.9% -24.8% 17% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 20 -5.2% -14.2% 30% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 31 -3.3% -12.5% 32% 0% -9.7%
all 64 +3.0% -6.8% 44% 19% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 19% -10.0%
10% -15.7% 17% -18.6%
15% -23.9% 14% -26.5%
20% -31.3% 12% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

529d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses28 / 36
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)64 / 66
History coverage529d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 51¢ 48¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $66 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $133 −$1 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $69 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $63 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $33 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 -2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $113 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $148 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $65 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $6 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $103 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $58 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $78 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 31 $32 +$2 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $61 −$4 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $27 $0 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $118 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 19 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $103 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $33 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $245 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $223 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $61 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $223 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $223 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $245 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 07 $1 $0 +3%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump end Department of Education in first 100 days? May 06 $1 $0 +3%
Will "Paddington in Peru" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $15-18 Mar 04 $18 −$18 -100%
Ohio vs. Bowling Green Feb 13 $1 +$3 +178%
Will Monaco vs. Benfica end in a draw? Feb 13 $5 +$2 +37%
Will Benfica win on 2025-02-12? Feb 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Feyenoord win on 2025-02-12? Feb 13 $3 +$6 +257%
Will Club Brugge win on 2025-02-12? Feb 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Manchester City vs. Real Madrid end in a draw? Feb 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-11? Feb 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Florida A&M vs. Prairie View A&M Feb 11 $2 +$3 +122%
Will the Rizzler appear in a Super Bowl LIX Commercial? Feb 11 $4 −$4 -100%
North Carolina vs. Clemson Feb 11 $6 +$6 +100%
Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Like That"? Feb 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Kanye banned on X by Monday? Feb 10 $1 −$1 -42%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? Feb 10 $24 $0 -1%
Will the Eagles score 16 or more points in Super Bowl LIX? Feb 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will ICE detain 800+ people on February 1? Feb 09 $3 −$3 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $29 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 50¢ $29 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $24 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $6 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $21 44h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $12 46h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $33 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $2 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $31 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $33 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $30 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $30 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $5 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $24 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $13 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $17 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $33 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $33 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $13 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $17 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $30 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 5d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $30 5d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $30 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 27¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.15 · official $29.11 (match) · 267 history records