Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:24:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
30 0x30a8…7a22 crypto 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$11 (+2%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate92%23W / 2L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day66.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)+4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +15.9% +4.9% 92% 68% +7.1%
≤30d 25 +15.9% +4.9% 92% 68% +7.1%
≤90d 25 +15.9% +4.9% 92% 68% +7.1%
all 25 +15.9% +4.9% 92% 68% +7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.9% 68% +7.1%
10% ← realistic here -5.2% 32% -3.2%
15% -14.3% 16% -12.5%
20% -22.7% 12% -21.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×9.51 per $1 lost it wins $9.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses23 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day66.0
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 19 $60 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 19 $81 +$19 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$29 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $111 +$12 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 19 $41 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $81 +$19 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 19 $8 −$3 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $13 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$6 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 19 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $13 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$4 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$11 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $30 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $30 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $33 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $123 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.