Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:52:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

30 0x30a9…c089 sports 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$18 (+22%) realized +$12 · open +$6

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip

Net edge+16%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%4W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$16per market

Trades / day6.6pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+20.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+33.4%	+20.7%	100%	100%	+23.9%
≤30d	4	+33.4%	+20.7%	100%	100%	+23.9%
≤90d	4	+33.4%	+20.7%	100%	100%	+23.9%
all	4	+33.4%	+20.7%	100%	100%	+23.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+20.7%	100%	+23.9%
10%	+9.1%	75%	+12.1%
15%	-1.4%	25%	+1.3%
20%	-11.1%	25%	-8.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 57% · top 2 78% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +37% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +33% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$5 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$35

Realized+$12

Unrealized+$6

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses4 / 0

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$16

Trades / day6.6

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5	Over	82¢	100¢	$28	$35	+$6 (+22%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$18	+$11	+62%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$13	+$4	+31%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5	Jun 18	$12	+$2	+17%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5	Jun 18	$9	+$2	+24%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5	BUY Over	82¢	$29	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$29	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$18	16h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	76¢	$13	25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$14	25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5	BUY Over	85¢	$12	30h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$12	30h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5	BUY Over	80¢	$9	30h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.62 · official $34.62 (match) · 9 history records