Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:56:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
30 0x30ac…ca76 other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$261 (-6%) realized −$238 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate62%20W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$47
14 days−$47
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$206
politics 17% +$17
world 17% +$66
sports 12% +$8
crypto 10% −$189
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -14.9% -23.0% 53% 40% -12.5%
≤30d 16 -12.5% -20.8% 56% 44% -10.8%
≤90d 28 -18.2% -26.0% 57% 36% -18.8%
all 32 -15.2% -23.3% 62% 34% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 34% -16.0%
10% -30.6% 22% -24.1%
15% -37.3% 19% -31.4%
20% -43.5% 6% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$65 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized−$238
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses20 / 12
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage107d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 78¢ $157 $134 −$23 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $41 +$67 +165%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $176 +$10 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $142 +$59 +41%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $111 +$46 +41%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $132 −$67 -51%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $211 +$9 +4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $98 +$87 +89%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $70 +$8 +11%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $96 −$95 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $107 −$77 -72%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$41 +41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $104 +$25 +24%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 03 $101 −$100 -99%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $101 +$42 +41%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 22 $209 +$33 +16%
Will Tom Sell be the Republican Nominee for TX-19? Apr 21 $485 −$7 -1%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on March 31? Apr 02 $147 −$147 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Mar 28 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Mar 28 $51 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Mar 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 28 $60 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 28 $100 +$20 +20%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $650b and $660b on March 31? Mar 28 $127 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $660b and $670b on March 31? Mar 28 $85 +$5 +6%
Will James Talarico receive the most votes in the first round of the D Mar 04 $199 +$24 +12%
Will there be between 10 and 13 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026 Mar 02 $189 +$10 +6%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026? Mar 01 $187 +$2 +1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $181 +$5 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $157 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $15 18h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 18h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $108 18h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $41 20h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $61 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $187 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $176 34h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 40h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 40h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 40h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 40h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $157 40h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $111 41h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 22¢ $36 41h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 45h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 93¢ $92 45h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 81¢ $80 47h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $161 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $166 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $78 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $78 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 89¢ $70 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 80¢ $49 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 45¢ $19 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $96 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 16¢ $31 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $29 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 61¢ $39 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.96 · official $133.96 (match) · 78 history records